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随着杠杆触及历史新高：以太坊合并之前预计会出现清算
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在 9 月的合并之前，几个链上数据集表明以太坊上工作量证明的不稳定结束。
以太坊会在合并日反弹，还是会出现广泛的“黑天鹅”事件？
估计杠杆比率
以太坊生态系统中的杠杆率在 The Merge 中创下历史新高。可以通过查看下面的估计杠杆比率来评估影响。估计杠杆比率 (ELR) 定义为期货合约中的未平仓合约与相应交易所的余额之比。
从下面的聊天中可以看出，8 月份 ELR 出现了显着上升。ELR 作为一个指标，衡量等待执行的未平仓合约与期货交易平台上的货币储备之间的比率。该图显示 ELR 已达到 0.28 的历史新高——表明如果价格大幅波动，则可能出现高波动。
从图中可以看出，以太坊和 ELR 在价格预测方面几乎没有相关性。ELR 的历史新高在历史上并未标志着以太坊的顶部或底部。
然而，参与市场的杠杆、未平仓头寸和空头越多，波动的可能性就越大，因为清算可能会导致任一方向的滚雪球效应。
资金费率
资金费率一直处于高度负值，并且与生态系统中的其他重大事件相关，例如 Covid-19、中国矿工禁令和 Terra Luna 崩盘。
合并可能是自 8 月初以来负融资利率的催化剂。对于那些希望通过围绕事件进行摆动交易来推测价格的人来说，对合并的期望很高。
下图突出显示了交易所为永续合约设定的平均资金费率百分比。当利率为正时，多头头寸会定期支付空头头寸。相反，当利率为负时，空头头寸会定期支付多头头寸。
最近几周，随着利率在正资金和负资金之间不断波动，资金处于中性状态，表明资金稳定。然而，上周负资金一直持续且激进。
目前的水平与去年夏天的矿工抛售相匹配，这标志着周期底部，类似于 Covid。当短裤为粗体时，这在历史上标志着周期底部。
未平仓合约
自 5 月初以来，以太坊期货市场的持仓量急剧增加。未平仓头寸从约 300 万 ETH 的基线上升，并在 8 月达到 500 万 ETH 的新高度。增长是由少数交易所引领的——主要是 Binance、Deribit、OKEx、Bybit、FTX 和 CME。
下图显示了在未平仓期货合约中分配的资金总量（以原生代币 ETH 为单位）。
比较 ETH 面额的未平仓合约有助于将期货杠杆的增长期与硬币价格变化区分开来。按美元计算，当前持仓量为 80 亿美元，相对较低，相当于 2021 年 1 月的早期牛市。
随着合并日的临近，这个舞台将迎来互联网历史上最重要的日子之一。数据表明我们正在坐过山车注意风险。 来源：金色财经 |
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