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数字资产行业的内驱力探讨与演进逻辑分析
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初探行业投资模式和框架，梳理投资收益分析工具。 撰文：Frank Fan，Arcane 基金合伙人、Arcane Labs 创始人 
数字资产行业经历十多年的发展，从一个少部分极客和理想主义人群的社会实践，经历几轮的跌宕起伏，发展到今天这样一个让各个国家、政府、机构、大学、社群、个人都开始关注、了解，并参与其中的新兴产业，期间充斥着各种理想主义，怀疑否定，造富运动，泡沫破裂，金融创新，监管合规等多种力量的博弈。加上整体社会宏观经济，技术发展，监管政策的影响，形成了一个多元分化，群雄逐鹿，自我迭代的新兴市场。 本文站在加密原生从业者的角度，期望通过研究分析行业驱动的核心因素，以及自我迭代的进程和方向，初步探讨行业投资的模式和框架，并尝试梳理初步的投资收益分析工具，以便更加客观和理性地预测投资收益，有效控制极端风险。 #1 数字资产行业发展的内外部驱动力数字资产行业是这样一个有争议的行业，每一次周期底部都伴随着质疑和嘲笑，然后体现其顽强的生命力，在下一轮周期里，可以进一步发展壮大，带来更大的财富效应，又进一步吸引更多的人进圈。到底有哪些核心内外部驱动力，促使着行业不断自我迭代和自我发展？ 1.1 外在驱动力1.1.1 主权货币的信任危机自从 2008 年金融危机后，各国央行开启了印钞新时代，比特币因此作为对冲中央银行不断印钞而导致货币贬值的另类资产，逐渐进入人们的视野。虽然发展初期存在各种质疑声音，比特币价格的大涨大跌也让大家怀疑其是否真的可以成为价值存储或者交易的工具，但是随着矿工群体的壮大，共识的凝聚，比特币变成了行业对标的价值参考物，随后 USDT 等稳定币的出现，也进一步加强了某些数字资产作为价值流通的工具。 近些年随着部分国家，如土耳其、阿根廷等国家的严重通胀，导致本地主权货币贬值，越来越多的当地居民选择将法币兑换为数字资产，作为全球流动资产进行价值保存。正因为部分国家治理问题导致的货币贬值，间接促进了数字资产作为价值存储的重要手段和工具。 
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