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美国贸易政策的突变正在使金融市场发生调整,这将对经济产生短期的负面影响,然而,过去一周的市场条件不太可能
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; Z P) S5 D& M0 K/ M. F成为未来四年的常态。特朗普ZF正在实施一系列政策措施,这些政策将对 GDP 增长、通货膨胀和贸易赤字产生不同的影响。# p& v; l- O# t' z: F
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例如,虽然关税可能会减少经济增长并提高通货膨胀(即造成滞涨),某些类型的放松管制可能会提高增长并降低通货膨胀
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(即减少滞涨),最终的结果将取决于白宫在这些领域内实施政策议程的程度。
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尽管前景存在不确定性,最好的猜测是,美国ZF的政策将在未来 1 至 3 年内导致美元持续疲软和总体高于目标的通胀。! }! L5 f d/ Y& F2 t" ? U
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关税本身可能会减缓增长,但这种影响可能会部分被减税、放松管制和美元贬值所抵消。如果白宫还积极推行其他促进增长的
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, T' b3 {' G" l0 @2 Q政策,尽管最初受到关税的冲击,GDP 增长仍可能保持相对良好。无论实际增长是否强劲,历史表明,一段时期内持续的通胀# N+ E7 h! M5 W/ l7 u0 h! o
2 x3 ~$ A l. q2 k) ~压力对比特币和黄金等稀缺大宗商品来说可能是有利的。' G! U& G, Q) I y. w& r
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此外,就像 20 世纪 70 年代的黄金一样,比特币如今拥有迅速改善的市场结构 — — 这得到了美国ZF政策变化的支持。, h1 h4 Q. d0 M8 K- P
: B+ D6 w$ z: K) |- h8 g* k o, ~今年以来,白宫实施了一系列广泛的政策变化,这些变化应该会支持对数字资产行业的投资,包括撤销一系列诉讼,确保资产; }; z1 O" ~0 _& e K
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对传统商业银行的适用性,以及允许受监管的机构(如托管人)提供加密货币服务。这反过来又引发了一波并购活动和其他战
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( j+ o; l2 j# }; U, J! a0 w, z& I7 p% F略投资。新关税对比特币等数字资产估值是一个短期的不利因素,但特朗普ZF的加密货币特定政策一直支持该行业。综合来; ^4 z/ S& ~- Q' n! u
, F% D8 h5 I) x: S* F% R看,宏观经济对稀缺大宗商品资产的需求上升和投资者经营环境的改善,可能是未来几年比特币广泛采用的有力组合。5 H3 r& d6 V3 a: l
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