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[虚拟币交流]
狗狗币——比特币最新价格反弹后，memecoin 的走势如何？（转）
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随着 BTC 回升至 10.6 万美元以上，狗狗币短期内反弹的可能性增加. L# D {) B1 ^
尽管 MVRV 比率为负，但狗狗币的派发阶段仍表明看涨信心较低
' m2 A" |2 [- u; |( @狗狗币[狗狗币]上周，该股遭遇挫折，在关键阻力位0.2美元处遭遇阻力。此后，该股已跌至0.17美元的局部低点。周一，比特币[BTC]从 105.6 万美元上涨至 108.4 万美元——撰写本文时涨幅为 2.72%。( ~2 ]5 G: K V8 t) ]
8 W7 k$ }- d, |) l& N未来可能还会有更多上涨，但宏观经济形势似乎与上周一样黯淡。此外，中东紧张局势似乎远未得到解决。在这种阴郁的背景下，领先的 memecoin 的价格走势并未改变长期投资者看跌的倾向。" D5 y& k' j0 X( g6 m
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AMBCrypto 最近的一份报告强调了人们对山寨币的预期。永续合约市场似乎正在为大事约70%的山寨币交易者明显偏多，而大盘股资产的交易者则有60%偏多。事实上，在上周的暴跌之后，他们原本预期市场将出现复苏。# r6 _5 N( l' {- N/ Y/ D8 Z
9 z: i! r( F1 Q; @应该 DOGE交易员们也转向看涨了吗？
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0 x# E- d+ n f6 }, d) A' t狗狗币仍对投资者保持看跌倾向: b! @, R5 ]+ S A
在一个在 X 上发帖，加密货币分析师阿里·马丁内斯观察到，TD Sequential 在狗狗币的 12 小时图上闪现了多个买入信号。然而，正如之前的分析指出的那样，狗狗币的 HTF 倾向仍然看跌.9 A/ t$ D+ q* X2 u
- x! B3 Z: m2 m$ QOBV 的抛售压力加大，加上 RSI 的看跌势头和看跌结构，意味着突破 0.2 美元可能极其困难。/ C0 C# f+ r W' `
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仔细观察六个月或更短时间持有狗狗币的投资者行为，可以发现他们正在进行分配阶段。平均币龄（衡量所有狗狗币在其当前地址停留的平均天数）在过去五周多的时间里一直呈下降趋势。& x9 N3 x* j8 N
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这一下跌趋势意味着狗狗币正从持有地址中转移，可能是为了出售。过去一个月内，狗狗币流通量激增也凸显了链上活动的活跃。$ R- Y0 ]9 L" y3 q, q- o( E+ o; a* l
' ~" x4 O, a2 i) l' H& c" T与此同时，即使领先的 memecoin 进入了分发阶段，180 天的 MVRV 比率仍然为负。; Q1 F& i) [: J; v. G
9 ?7 s: N/ W! x E4 |这对投资者来说可能是一个令人沮丧的信号。根据TD Sequential和比特币的反弹，交易员或许应该做多，但投资者仍应保持警惕。+ B, o0 N/ {4 R, N$ r
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