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[体育菠菜心得方法] 再论赔率统计 --新手胡说八道
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1#
以威廉为标准，只统计 英超，西甲，意甲
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只跟踪一个联赛
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" Q1 _3 K9 S: s: n全塞季  分别买 主胜，  平，   负赔
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! j; _! V/ W: ^& a& Z9 F三条线  ，三年统计结果  全部亏水钱，积少成多也不少啊 ，最后收益差别不大，
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偶尔年份  平或 负赔会高一点。/ Q$ N! H, v. w; C
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方法：  全程跟踪一个联赛，一个塞季， 只买一边， 主胜 或负赔（平局出现相对概率要少）6 ~/ v( o8 L( K
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然后通过基本面或盘赔特征，排除一部分球赛， 最后你买的那边胜率就会增高， 只需要增高一点，
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. j. [: v6 D4 e) R0 c6 m) l就可以做到 一边持平或赚水钱，  然后就是不断累积经验，多排除一些球赛，多赚一点水钱) l8 T2 |. i  ~8 j
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当经验积累到一定程度， 足球就成了一种长期投资 项目: ?) P: E6 o* R" J" @
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亚盘没有统计，想当然，  低水胜出概率高点，  让盘方胜出概率高点，只有两个方向容易判断，: P+ h: R7 z& M
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而且亚盘返还率要高一点， 选低水+让球方，一个联赛一个赛季全程跟踪，开始肯定输水钱，# K( [7 @( V2 E; o' T9 I0 q# k- `
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但是只要累计经验去排除一些明显打不出来的球赛就可以了，就可以把水钱赚回来。
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8 q! _9 u# |1 k5 L" C5 O3 R理论依据： 只买一边 ，一定不会让你亏多少，因为大联赛大庄都是平衡的，一个联赛一个赛季一定平衡。6 x) {3 m1 ~$ Z: a7 I- c2 N
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排除比选择要容易积累经验， 而且学习排除法 那些不可能出现  ，比那些可能出现 要容易判断

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2#
以上的方法 是不可能赚多少钱的，6 i* H8 }6 \+ [! Q, I9 o

. Q, u2 A4 y( \  \& L- k但是每个赛季 5-10%， 是可以做到的，: K* O$ o3 x# [; G, K( ~9 H
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这比买国债存银行合算。$ @3 R/ X4 H9 i& F! A

' @: [2 F5 m" g$ ^$ L. G在DC赚大钱的人，都是用高风险去博高收益，风险大利润才高，9 ^2 Y& d3 M, \% c3 P8 H

4 g# i& G9 ?, q* I) u几次发现十几倍的负赔，就是不敢去，买了平，这就是人性。' _) |2 w  m1 m: d. o

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# J  K! x8 T# R* H9 p  ]常胜的人收益一定不会高到那里去。
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. [5 ~, }  x$ M放弃一夜暴富，放弃神奇的方法， 放弃高的胜率，4 v% X: a# h1 p; Z; C

* S8 \& O5 m- h( C) a1 V" P" Q0 L就是回避了大的亏损，
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- B# F- Z6 B# `# G. z" O大亏，小亏，小赢，大赢，  DC就这四种结果，4 {  s+ n; e+ ?. |  x; I7 t
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回避了大亏，用经验避免小亏，就只剩下 赢了。

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顶起再慢慢看

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