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! _4 `0 C% b) c: d7 ?0 Z+ B首先你要有一个认知，真人百家乐的获利对象是以像你这样的业余赌客居多，而不是那些会看路的职业赌客，因为业余赌客永远是娱乐城的最大宗客户，所以他们没必要刻意去破路，但是当机率改变，路也一定更容易被破；另外你必须知道一个很重要的观念，百家乐由于庄闲补牌规则不同，最容易使机率改变的是「4」这张牌，4越多越容易开庄，4越少则越容易开闲，而对一般玩家而言，除了4这张号码增加也较不容易被发现外，在心理学上多数业余玩家喜欢压闲是多过压庄的，因为直观的反应是玩家会想和当「庄家」的赌场对抗，以及压注闲家获胜时不用被抽5%水钱。
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看到这也许你会说，那你把把压庄不就好了，事实上是，当未被改变过机率的套牌，大约需要开出16000副牌后，庄闲才会来到符合他们原本机率的稳定值，而即便增加4改变机率（我不是说增加的牌一定是4，而是4能使结果产生最大转变，因此我们用增加4来计算，若增减的是其他号码则改变机率的幅度更轻微），一副8副牌的套牌平均可以产生68组有效结果（扣掉切牌大约要减去4至6组），平均庄家在一副套牌中也只能多出0.2-0.4次胜利，这样的改变你把把压庄是无感的。
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8 O# C: ?, q- r0 I/ w9 D( a我们要抓的是整体性的改变，并且我们把目标锁定在直观视觉就容易看出的部分。' D* j+ s8 }- i/ y7 ^" `: U1 ]
1、长闲机率会降低，只要看到6连闲就勇敢斩龙，若筹码较为充裕的玩家从5连就能斩起，从6连闲开到8连闲只有不到4%的发生率，也就是你斩100次，会成功96次。
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2、当出现连续二间跳（闲闲庄庄闲闲庄庄）6次以上的盘路时，断闲和加庄的机率会随着二间跳的次数不断加高，6次后就会来到75%左右，也就是说当第6次二间跳此时你压庄有75%的机会会胜利，即便失败，下一把再压庄你的成功率已经高达80%，两者的复合成功率是95%，也就是说你每压100次，会成功95次；若第6次二间跳是跳闲，那你就等第7次再动手，此时的复合成功率已经将近99%。0 z/ P. Y* N3 W( X0 U7 V0 N/ t
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3、当出现一副套牌「闲胜-庄胜」大于12时，此时庄胜开出的机率约是闲胜的2倍，也就是出现这情形后你把把压庄，你每3把牌可以赢2把，即便失败，当这个数字大于14时，庄胜的机率已经超过闲胜的3倍，也就是说只要你连输2把后加注，你就有97%的机率保持不输，有73%的机率可以获胜。' U9 n* h' a. e% _' ?% ]! M7 J) w
, d* g3 _6 m9 K- L+ |0 @* ~为什么能赢？因为可以换桌. Y! G1 \5 i8 N0 A$ R5 L
# x6 P2 y6 |' q; U) l9 q- M看到这里，我猜你可能会有2个反应，你会恍然大悟，「啊！原来这样就可以赢钱！这些状况都是95%以上的超高胜率，根本和送钱没两样。」或是你会这样想，「有讲和没讲一样！这些状况都很难碰到，就算超高胜率也没用！」
) H4 H' x! S/ y) `2 Y2 B# ]+ T但你别忘了，我们现在在讨论的是真人百家乐，还记得我们前面说过真人百家乐和赌场百家乐有何不同吗？真人百家乐你要换桌只需要移动你的手指去点滑鼠，而且真人百家乐的规则是你要2把不下注才会被赶出该桌，每一把的间隔是60秒，也就是说你有120秒的时间去看有没有我上面提到的盘路，我为什么只告诉你这种简单到不行的盘路？因为这是再笨的玩家都可以在120秒内找到的答案。2 C$ L# g- X5 A5 T; f* D; E
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5 c7 u R( W" u9 W" Y1 ]5 k! x r
有时候理论帖多看真的会赢钱的 |
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