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[lastpost] => 2781939 数据：比特币在本周期中第四次出现“死亡交叉”，之后一年上涨概率为 50% 1763307127 比推快讯
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Bitunix 分析师：沃勒公开力挺 12 月降息美联储分歧成市场最大不确定性
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比推消息，美联储理事克里斯托弗?9?9沃勒公开表态支持在 12 月会议再降息 25 个基点，理由聚焦于劳动力市场持续疲软与对中低阶消费者压力的担忧。沃勒将此定义为风险管理式降息，认为在官方数据受限的情况下，宁可提前提供保险以避免就业快速恶化。与此同时，美联储内部鹰派声音并未消退，数位票数上的分裂使得下一次决议充满变数——若维持利率或再次降息，均可能出现至少三张反对票。政策预期不再单向，市场需在降息可能性与政策分歧加剧两者之间对冲。
在此政策迷雾下，加密市场已显现明显压力。恐慌指标当前为 12，过去 24 小时交易量激增 51%，市场冲击急剧放大；24 小时衍生品爆仓总额达 9.1157 亿美元，其中多头 6.3131 亿美元、空头 2.8023 亿美元。链上与 ETF 流向同步显示承接力不足，获利了结卖压、ETF 资金延续净出场，市场在短时间内由流动性缺口放大价格反应。
Bitunix 分析师观点：沃勒的鸽派信号在消息面初期能短暂提振风险资产预期，但在数据真空与 FOMC（联邦公开市场委员会）分歧加剧下，只会放大双向波动。我们关注三条可供事件驱动的价格路径：若 ETF 净流出止住且大户于 8.5 万 – 9 万美元区域现身接盘，BTC 有望先反弹至 10 万美元；若衍生品连锁平仓与更多长期持有者加速出货，失守 8.5 万 – 8.8 万美元将快速引导价格下探 7.5 万 – 7.7 万美元的深层流动性区。短期关键观察点：1) FOMC 投票动态与沃勒后续评论；2) ETF 每日净流向与大型钱包现金化频次；3) PUT/OI（看跌期权未平仓合约）与隐含波动率的同步变化——三者若同向恶化，市场将由结构性再定价转为加速下跌。
风险提示： 本新闻涉及的内容仅供参考，不构成投资建议。依据发布的信息以及所表达的意见行事所造成的一切后果由行事者自负。文章链接 |
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