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[lastpost] => 2785281 狗狗币守住关键支撑位——狗狗币能否引发趋势反转？（转） 1764374974 sunnyclare001
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[虚拟币资讯]
币世界余勋6.2 缩表为弥补去年放水 而放水初期低点其实就在5.19两万七 长线以此为据
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在大部分人认为6月的50加息+缩表、基本在5月的下行中、得到有效释放、
1 o3 i, p2 }/ c- \# m余勋也不例外、 8 @, o. n7 _( s' J6 u1 v2 k
其中最关键的是美联储26号纪要、会灵活对待加息。
% M) `$ m6 h: b是保经济的重要决策！ 9 ~9 D n" G" |
这其中美股迎来了阶段连涨、大饼也四连阳、
* ]' P# }5 e% x7 e: z低点26700-32400、
5 x i2 {8 j( H$ m, e反弹近六千点、以太低点反弹近300点。
2 v& l1 @, s ?% W但仅仅在缩表两个交易日、 # o; p& a k4 _- _& g
大饼回撤幅度达到三千点、以太近200点。 8 X- ]* B, ^- v& C8 d/ [
涨幅就已回撤过半！ & S2 ]2 [" s; A; B
所以暂时来看，期待的靴子落地效应基本告吹。
. `( ?6 Z$ ^2 }& {8 @( ]* @6 ]不是利空没有得到释放、是市场做多情绪无法调动。
& T X- h3 Y# g其次、
7 L* f% I- | R `1 p, ]% @8 I缩表大致会延续至2024年初、 % W$ s& t* }8 L; u1 }, ^+ J
每月950亿、直至达到1.5万亿美元、 ! m# e# ?7 a2 n; B. o' C4 {3 k
等于说、这期间会持续在蓄水池中进行抽水。 . h* {" g. g# Z
美股想大肆上行也是有心无力。 5 a7 h3 Y/ p1 z+ ^: ]
但回到币圈、 % f$ m8 x" P5 K4 D0 Q) v& |
去年牛市因5.19去中心化大跌、 ! Q3 o6 V2 Y) [# M; S/ x5 N% [
在27000附近。美联储大幅度在放水、迎来第二轮周期牛市。
* [9 [; t$ I% O! b# P+ y5 e# @" P而现在弥补这个放水漏洞、而行情其实已经在放水底部附近。 B2 l% g/ k: C! Y* W2 i8 |" M- _2 q% S
个人认为、在经历了加息初期、中期恐慌、
6 F3 B( t0 n% u缩表虽是实质利空，但终究是缓慢的。
7 X% i& C0 X4 A- B; |% M对当前的底部、影响有限。
+ U, f9 P: A0 N+ q. x1 { \( x最不济、缩表启动至结束、行情依然处于放水初期币圈阶段。也就是当前27000-30000附近。 9 O* b/ q) h6 c* b
所以27000、即是 q4 t3 J8 h( E" L0 J3 p, L0 d& F
去年5.19低点、也是今年5.12（加息50基点+缩表恐慌低点）
) c h) o4 b% t' ?同时还是去年放水初期低点、
1 b3 K+ f3 F2 b: r8 i" U也会是今年缩表弥补去年放水周期的低点。
1 [/ M6 r/ `" k9 w8 H; h由此得出的结论是、
0 _/ F* k& S/ G7 p2 j8 b3 y/ z: r加息+缩表等实质利空、市场年度最大创伤、底部就在27000附近、而以太就在1700附近。
% p% G" f" n3 W/ u; j }2 k6 D. y点位不会出现太大偏离。 6 T! U# p1 L) K1 z7 r+ {0 i
综合以上、 ( V8 w/ o- L/ n: Y' p. x
美股逐渐消化了加息、也开启缩表缓慢抽水、
& G: D. o: o; C$ W' z6 k在整个运行过程中、会由初期的恐慌、缓慢下行，逐渐适应、止跌、然后徐徐补涨。
/ Q8 ~ q$ s5 {那操作上、无非缺乏了长线效应、 9 A. b4 U3 H: Q, t
抬头大肆上涨、条件匮乏！下行、最大利空由当初的注水点、再到完全调离这些注入资金。低点其实也都在这附近。 & U5 n9 G" m! E0 `! C
那行情其实还是围绕三万点、进行弱势整理。 , ?. s' p4 i7 f9 v
即难深跌、也难大涨，直至缩表有效、通胀得到控制。
- W; {6 Q" j M D* e% a# {- v: u美股适应上行、市场逐步接受开始回暖。
. [0 L+ t3 L7 F: t, o9 ^- x夜间美股走势平平、虽弱但不跌。
y/ E3 q( N5 d: P& k& J3 ~大饼无需追空、给一空间点位、 ; E/ _2 |7 `" V
逢28000附近、以太1720附近可做短线接多点。 " e/ [. R- y7 q' v- d3 g. c
高空需至31700-32000间布局、 ! M5 [ o# G, @0 h, k( I+ [
反之、空间不够、进场始终趋于震荡区中轨、
5 O) n# Z$ U7 S" m/ y% B( `( [得不偿失。 - L. M$ J3 L, X! A0 k: o8 R/ Y4 I
来源：金色财经 |
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