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[lastpost] => 2786228 比特币价格飙升，IBIT成为交易最活跃的ETF之一；矿业股下跌（转） 1764745789 rainwang
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[虚拟币交流]
比特币下跌，黄金触顶——但 Uptober 尚未结束（转）
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今年十月已经测试了比特币的[BTC]信徒。在通常被称为“Uptober”的月份过半时，BTC 发现自己处于陌生的境地，遭遇了历史上最糟糕的月中表现之一。4 w- v' T2 k' q6 }6 e) G
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但你看不到的是，比特币收盘上涨的可能性仍然很大，罕见的BTC-黄金图表细节也表明可能已经触底。* a4 L! R6 B& @4 V0 G
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Uptober 能否如期实现目标，还是说这将是它的终结？
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开局艰难，但历史看好牛市5 K s5 Z0 H0 @' N6 H# f4 c5 I
2025 年 10 月已经赢得了比特币十月份表现为有记录以来第二糟糕。对于通常看涨的月份来说，这是一个令人惊讶的转折。7 F4 S6 M+ x: |5 S$ q2 p6 j/ G
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来源：Alphractal9 L% L6 u4 l/ S5 i& Z& g
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15年来，只有四个10月份收盘下跌。但鉴于比特币最终上涨的可能性高达73%，胜算仍然对比特币有利。% a0 J( H: l6 G$ P; k) i$ s6 d
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尽管开局不稳，但许多人相信本月结束前可能会转为看涨，保持这种势头。
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1 }; w8 M ]) D" G* g" v事情变得有趣了
* s5 o* ~2 r' U7 H( H1 N8 E* WBTC/黄金比率中罕见的信号表明形势可能很快就会发生转变。/ c5 k: R$ L1 c' \* Z
+ S8 ~2 R) C4 {, x6 @" y" H来源：X+ ~1 H1 r) {+ _
0 n* m% `- V y2 G% N- H& i4 \根据最近的数据，该比率已达到迄今为止仅在主要市场底部出现的水平，而这些时刻往往是从黄金转向比特币的最佳时机。
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" N8 o6 P" ]7 h" a d0 {6 Z0 ~BTC/黄金震荡指标徘徊在-1.8左右，从历史上看，这与BTC开始跑赢黄金的周期低点相关。$ T. u F$ ?& A, P" \$ R x. R: L
& I& E" |0 I Y4 _- {% _- H正如 Alphractal 首席执行官 Joao Wedson 所说，该图表“基本上是在大声疾呼”现在是“出售黄金、购买比特币的时候了”。
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3 r8 e- T8 |, {& V随着黄金价格处于高位，而比特币出现触底信号，风险回报方程现在可能更倾向于加密货币，而不是传统的避风港。
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空头在 10.7 万美元附近失去动力
2 p" R- }" g$ |/ n, [- D经过几天的持续抛售，截至发稿时，比特币似乎稳定在 107,000 美元左右。( {# D2 A" H, x y1 A0 l- {
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来源：TradingView8 ]$ N* Y; R; ]; A& R+ M3 R
4 Y+ ?/ _, i9 X日线图显示看跌势头减弱，RSI 指标显示 BTC 处于超卖区域。与此同时，MACD 图柱趋于平缓；如果买盘活跃，则可能出现动能逆转。: p4 ]" T0 t( x. U( H6 n7 l
; M& ]* j: a# }1 L9 c然而，BTC 的交易价格仍然低于关键 EMA（20、50、100），整体趋势仍看跌。
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2 C% ^+ U9 R+ c/ F5 k突破 110,000 美元的决定性举措可能确认复苏，但在此之前，有点乐观永远不会伤害任何人。
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十月才过一半别急着下结论，比特币这货向来爱搞幺蛾子 |
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这波跌得挺狠，但老韭菜都懂，Uptober还没完呢 |
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