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[lastpost] => 2652403 以太坊仍低于3800美元,交易员继续价格战 1716645653 rainwang
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当前离线
经验:
天策币:
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策小分:
总在线: 12076 小时
本月在线: 34 小时
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比特币减半即将到来,距离减半仅剩约10天。面对即将到来的比特币减半,我们应该如何应对未来的行情呢?
+ Z J! {5 m# J. v8 I" U2 }) V% ]$ Z' v2 U, L, v
7 ]7 g* R6 @# W- ]# ?
# t& t: q8 ?( O6 h# a9 x 根据过去几次比特币减半的历史数据来看,通常比特币在减半后会先出现一波下跌,然后经过数月的盘整后,会迎来
1 \# B. n& x" ^6 c" a% C7 c/ O& t. d0 e9 T, ?! G: {0 N
上涨行情并创造新的历史高点。根据目前比特币的日线图观察,我们可以看到比特币价格目前正在进行三角盘整,意味著比9 e: b" q: W9 y0 j) ^& C T8 B. H
4 n+ E$ E0 @. J) G; ]0 m特币可能会迎来向上或向下的行情。) M# {8 x$ n1 B' g1 o, f. B9 p% A
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此外,我们还可以从MACD和牛市平均线中获取一些信息。目前MACD仍处于盘整阶段,而牛市平均线已达到51000 - 53000美元。
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虽然比特币ETF的加持可能会使行情产生有所不同的变化,但我个人仍认为比特币可能会迎来一波回调阶段,然后在减半后进行盘) Y" x( J9 J( C, j/ |
6 w9 }. u8 I( S5 g1 V5 [9 r整,最终突破向上。
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( ]6 n3 x) M( u* Z' ] 我认为比特币的OTC市场对此有著重大影响。比特币的产出一直源自于矿工,而他们一直在OTC市场向大型机构出售比特币。
# _; B8 m! n& ^, @2 b5 g0 r# L! s- p; ~, t6 d
最近的报告显示,随著比特币需求的增加和卖方流动性的下降,比特币的流动存量已经下降到历史最低水平。分析师估计,目前
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比特币的卖方流动性库存只能满足未来6-12个月的需求增长。' b& u& H# ^2 L E7 Q
. ]5 c% p1 x+ O$ ?8 e& S! {& y3 Q根据以上信息,比特币的流动性库存只能满足未来6-12个月的需求增长,这意味著如果比特币的价格要大幅上涨,先决条件便是需4 Q8 p7 ^* y8 e( g3 A) Z6 C8 H
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要清空所有的库存,才能导致比特币价格上涨。随著比特币ETF对比特币的需求不断增加,我认为6-12个月只是伴随著现有情况而作 A& [, Z3 B9 U% n3 {1 v4 E0 T, e
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出的估算,因此我们除了关注比特币价格外,还应该关注比特币ETF的供求情况和表现。* Y6 p4 ] q, \# l- `5 U ~
+ k5 z k" i" V3 E1 `
综合以上信息,我认为比特币可能会像过去的行情一样,在减半后先迎来一波回调,然后等待OTC市场的比特币库存不足时,价格自1 u2 x; p) H9 B* |' K4 p) @* H2 h
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然会上涨。届时,各大型机构将无法在任何OTC市场中购买比特币,可能会转而在现货市场进行购买,这可能会推动比特币价格上涨。
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当前离线
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当前离线
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当前离线
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当前离线
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当前离线
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总在线: 12117 小时
本月在线: 41 小时
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当前离线
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总在线: 2146 小时
本月在线: 38 小时
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当前离线
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总在线: 3416 小时
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当前离线
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总在线: 799 小时
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当前离线
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总在线: 9407 小时
本月在线: 56 小时
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