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[虚拟币资讯]
Foresight Ventures市场周报:变盘在即,缩表或推动市场走低
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市场观点
& j0 K+ T7 ~7 p+ G- G4 R4 K1 \0 N; }1、宏观流动性 0 S5 R! |; b7 A0 h/ c; J* W( L
货币流动性整体紧缩。本周美联储公布5月份议息会议纪要,6月及7月预计继续分别加息50基点,并开始缩表。拜登有意取消关税会降低通胀,长期有望减缓加息力度。本轮牛熊与以往最大区别是,华尔街传统资本的参与改变了crypto原有博弈格局,成为短期走势决定性因素。随着这批投机者逐渐离开,crypto走势逐渐与美股有了一定程度的不同步。 - n" p8 ?6 h& _- @8 x4 Z1 r
+ w, Q& q+ S0 L1 A2 R$ a/ Y2、链上指标
% ]$ ]& |6 L+ L9 o! u9 G* O, C2 `从链上数据看,总体是大户和长线投资者买入,小户和短线投资者卖出为主。BTC在交易所的库存并没有随着震荡而减少,反而在不断的增加。这部分筹码是破坏平衡的定时炸弹,可能会随着时间而逐渐失去耐性,随时转变为抛压。 9 m- g! n, k" f$ o
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链上活动保持冷清。链上活动和DeFi代币价格表现之间有很强的相关性,目前DeFi需求在大幅下降,尚未看到趋势的逆转。很多DeFi代币流动性枯竭,基本依靠交易所做市商维护。
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3、BTC长期市场指标 7 B" T* v0 k, V* R
长期趋势指标MVRV-ZScore以市场总成本作为依据,反映市场总体盈利状态。当指标大于6时,是顶部区间;当指标小于2时,是底部区间。当前指标为0.4,可见目前虽未到历史大底,但依然在低位。 8 i+ R" @: h! I. `; C5 w
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4、BTC短期市场指标
: V' K: C- n( @/ ~1 H: r9 j期货资金费率:维持在0%附近,偏空。费率0.05-0.1%,多头杠杆较多,是市场短期顶部;费率-0.1-0%,空头杠杆较多,是市场短期底部。随着BTC价格下跌,资金费率开始向看空的方向转移,但目前力度并不算大,情绪也不算是坚定。
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期货多空比:1.4。多空比数据波动较大,参考意义有所削弱。虽然周内市场处于震荡下行的状态,但是很多散户反而觉得是反弹的机会。
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0 q* I7 o, q8 e( z! s合约持仓量:合约持仓量又有了明显的增长。期权与合约市场数据显示,至少在未来3-6个月内,对进一步下行的恐惧仍然存在。 ) B: c. q# f2 E- @
) q# X/ U# S6 R8 |- G, L6 e. H$ v5、BTC走势分析
8 d3 _5 e+ b' Q# j本周BTC在31500-28500的区间窄幅震荡,属于大跌后的修复整理行情。交易流动性继续降低回到一个月前水平,市场所期待的大规模反弹在资金不够充足情况下,只能期待流通量更加枯竭,才有可能在已降低的存量资金下有反弹的出现。BTC长期下行趋势依然没有改变,距离熊市极限底部仍有一定空间。
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6、板块涨跌幅Top 100 # F h( P- P) a) l% a0 B& G
本周BTC下跌5%,市场继续震荡。BTC的整体市占率提升到46%。复盘17年牛市市值前200个crypto项目,在21年牛市只有5%(例如LINK,DOGE,BNB)跑赢了BTC和ETH,大部分都下跌75%甚至更多。Crypto买新不买旧,熊市里抄底山寨币不是高胜率的投资,因为下一轮牛市总会有新的叙事主角。
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2 D, `7 `, o! G3 Y- Y, ]1 X, o市场数据
( f% ]" r) t* A% k E! Q9 j2 u1、公链总锁仓量情况 2 W0 K9 u! x* d6 U5 `
; G4 d, t- X9 d u" R9 X- Q' g本周TVL总量下跌5.08B,下跌幅度4.57%,短钱内行情端有继续下跌趋势,TVL在经历大幅下跌后也未见起色,可能会仍伴随大盘加速下跌。 5 ?9 t, z; P ?
2、各公链TVL占比情况 2 L$ K' }4 \$ J* \. W" I( B
1 x( ?8 o3 ]9 }2 D本周ETH占比从64.99%下降至63.78%,占比下降1.21%;Tron链占比异军突起,由3.96%上升至5.32%,单周占比上涨1.36%,目前已超越Avalanche排在第三位,下方已新增Tron链协议TVL数据。 4 O8 z8 J" W# \5 t" E" q ?- y
3、各链协议锁仓量情况
; I- N7 p' E# Y% b7 A1 K9 W1)ETH锁仓量情况 8 E2 r; z* G) q
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2)BSC锁仓量情况 5 l% b9 U Z1 R; O p; C
: v* m `6 X) J3)Tron锁仓量情况
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4)Solana锁仓量情况
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5)Avalanche锁仓量情况 7 J! G8 w, `5 @
, m7 b8 E5 _. I( E) J% L6)Polygon锁仓量情况 7 ~' e5 G O) r1 b: z( B
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7)Fantom锁仓量情况
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$ v/ q/ r) B2 H: ]8)本周协议情况总结 " D: C/ |6 }% n# w
本周Tron生态出现爆发,其上的官方借贷协议Justlend功不可没,Jusdtlend的TVL已成为排名第三的借贷协议,锁仓金额已达30亿美元,助力Tron生态成为第三公链;其通过TRX铸造成稳定币USDD,由套利机制保证价格锚定1美元,与LUNA不同的是USDD的铸造和TRX的销毁有中心化管制,存款放和借款人与协议进行交互,赚取或支付浮动利率,当前提供USDD的APY为11.59%(由USDD和协议Token组成),借款USDD的APY为7.51%。 1 L1 w: ~1 ~) `2 w
4、ETH Gas fee历史情况
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/ ~, \7 A& I7 [. M. P; k( O当前链上转账费用约为$2.73,Uniswap交易费用约为$9.30,Opensea的交易费用约为$10.20,本周内Gas出现缓步提升,每日均值有逐渐增高之势。
+ Q% X: w4 I! H' b# z$ d; ~" R' `7 Y5、NFT市场数据变化
$ k0 z; A, C5 h/ e( ZNFT指数市值 4 _' s+ k! X$ H% X0 U. {8 w; M- h5 h
; m, o2 D; G6 m; Z- NNFT市场交易概览 2 C6 [4 H7 \% Y7 @
1 h. ^, }! N, a% t! W: U- F2 a! S7 d) g. P/ `NFT“聪明的钱”购买排序
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h! S8 s7 R- _. T5 j$ ~本周NFT市场依旧低迷,值得关注的项目为AIMoonbirds,交易活跃且收到多笔聪明钱的购买,其中包含了一万只AI生成的猫头鹰,画质精美,且重合度极低,当前Opensea地板价0.39ETH。 3 D V. v h; N2 g9 }
3 n4 r! I. P' T7 [项目最新融资情况
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免责声明: Foresight Ventures所有文章均不作为投资建议。投资有风险,请评估个人风险承受能力,审慎做出投资决策。 来源:金色财经 |
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