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[虚拟币资讯]
Foresight Ventures市场周报:变盘在即,缩表或推动市场走低
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市场观点
! \8 p% }. Y: A1 v6 [1、宏观流动性
Q% a. R( p9 C# e货币流动性整体紧缩。本周美联储公布5月份议息会议纪要,6月及7月预计继续分别加息50基点,并开始缩表。拜登有意取消关税会降低通胀,长期有望减缓加息力度。本轮牛熊与以往最大区别是,华尔街传统资本的参与改变了crypto原有博弈格局,成为短期走势决定性因素。随着这批投机者逐渐离开,crypto走势逐渐与美股有了一定程度的不同步。
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% X& M7 }6 c( X* I, q" m) m7 |2、链上指标 + J9 N2 R# H7 N$ e+ y
从链上数据看,总体是大户和长线投资者买入,小户和短线投资者卖出为主。BTC在交易所的库存并没有随着震荡而减少,反而在不断的增加。这部分筹码是破坏平衡的定时炸弹,可能会随着时间而逐渐失去耐性,随时转变为抛压。
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链上活动保持冷清。链上活动和DeFi代币价格表现之间有很强的相关性,目前DeFi需求在大幅下降,尚未看到趋势的逆转。很多DeFi代币流动性枯竭,基本依靠交易所做市商维护。 2 F6 _, s( R# P7 B8 }/ x v
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3、BTC长期市场指标
& u& {* C u7 L+ r# R长期趋势指标MVRV-ZScore以市场总成本作为依据,反映市场总体盈利状态。当指标大于6时,是顶部区间;当指标小于2时,是底部区间。当前指标为0.4,可见目前虽未到历史大底,但依然在低位。
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4、BTC短期市场指标 $ q, r+ M/ H8 K. p' b# f
期货资金费率:维持在0%附近,偏空。费率0.05-0.1%,多头杠杆较多,是市场短期顶部;费率-0.1-0%,空头杠杆较多,是市场短期底部。随着BTC价格下跌,资金费率开始向看空的方向转移,但目前力度并不算大,情绪也不算是坚定。
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期货多空比:1.4。多空比数据波动较大,参考意义有所削弱。虽然周内市场处于震荡下行的状态,但是很多散户反而觉得是反弹的机会。 / o% _4 Z% v. k8 [: Y
3 j# v, d# b- ?- w合约持仓量:合约持仓量又有了明显的增长。期权与合约市场数据显示,至少在未来3-6个月内,对进一步下行的恐惧仍然存在。 3 ^: R/ Q+ [* f3 q [' L
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5、BTC走势分析 - Z1 u9 c$ n! N+ C/ n- X8 R
本周BTC在31500-28500的区间窄幅震荡,属于大跌后的修复整理行情。交易流动性继续降低回到一个月前水平,市场所期待的大规模反弹在资金不够充足情况下,只能期待流通量更加枯竭,才有可能在已降低的存量资金下有反弹的出现。BTC长期下行趋势依然没有改变,距离熊市极限底部仍有一定空间。
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6、板块涨跌幅Top 100
m/ Y `( h8 u' y1 y本周BTC下跌5%,市场继续震荡。BTC的整体市占率提升到46%。复盘17年牛市市值前200个crypto项目,在21年牛市只有5%(例如LINK,DOGE,BNB)跑赢了BTC和ETH,大部分都下跌75%甚至更多。Crypto买新不买旧,熊市里抄底山寨币不是高胜率的投资,因为下一轮牛市总会有新的叙事主角。
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市场数据
0 P" d9 P% g. o4 m3 I3 a1、公链总锁仓量情况
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: _2 g, ^- _6 L: \本周TVL总量下跌5.08B,下跌幅度4.57%,短钱内行情端有继续下跌趋势,TVL在经历大幅下跌后也未见起色,可能会仍伴随大盘加速下跌。
3 H! S; e) t, ?1 v9 C! v. W2、各公链TVL占比情况 _& }+ d! H% U
) o( }( K4 {9 N# u E- k本周ETH占比从64.99%下降至63.78%,占比下降1.21%;Tron链占比异军突起,由3.96%上升至5.32%,单周占比上涨1.36%,目前已超越Avalanche排在第三位,下方已新增Tron链协议TVL数据。
. E7 ~4 T) g, R6 r1 s3、各链协议锁仓量情况 # o/ @1 J: v: d4 ~' }
1)ETH锁仓量情况
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2)BSC锁仓量情况
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" z) z. M) W9 s' K# T/ u9 n3)Tron锁仓量情况
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$ M- a5 X6 V0 c3 h ^" B! O4)Solana锁仓量情况
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9 k' K; O3 U) @5)Avalanche锁仓量情况 ( p% B! H2 ]) }2 N9 J
, r7 ], V- o, O6)Polygon锁仓量情况
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7)Fantom锁仓量情况
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8)本周协议情况总结
/ D1 G7 `1 {1 m* r. D3 k+ v本周Tron生态出现爆发,其上的官方借贷协议Justlend功不可没,Jusdtlend的TVL已成为排名第三的借贷协议,锁仓金额已达30亿美元,助力Tron生态成为第三公链;其通过TRX铸造成稳定币USDD,由套利机制保证价格锚定1美元,与LUNA不同的是USDD的铸造和TRX的销毁有中心化管制,存款放和借款人与协议进行交互,赚取或支付浮动利率,当前提供USDD的APY为11.59%(由USDD和协议Token组成),借款USDD的APY为7.51%。
8 n J, e @, L2 i4、ETH Gas fee历史情况 5 [7 z( r8 f8 @( F& o- l$ H
: Z1 g" W( D* o ]4 J8 _当前链上转账费用约为$2.73,Uniswap交易费用约为$9.30,Opensea的交易费用约为$10.20,本周内Gas出现缓步提升,每日均值有逐渐增高之势。
! W7 t) R: y, G2 m) q5、NFT市场数据变化
% D9 `, J: C- jNFT指数市值 # f* X5 \. ] K7 L2 @" U% b
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NFT市场交易概览
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# J- d4 c0 f3 m! s6 B2 sNFT“聪明的钱”购买排序
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" ?+ K2 e% U2 \% A; {本周NFT市场依旧低迷,值得关注的项目为AIMoonbirds,交易活跃且收到多笔聪明钱的购买,其中包含了一万只AI生成的猫头鹰,画质精美,且重合度极低,当前Opensea地板价0.39ETH。
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" ^* g& A0 J- Y0 f& ^2 Q项目最新融资情况
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免责声明: Foresight Ventures所有文章均不作为投资建议。投资有风险,请评估个人风险承受能力,审慎做出投资决策。 来源:金色财经 |
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