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[lastpost] => 2785281 狗狗币守住关键支撑位——狗狗币能否引发趋势反转？（转） 1764374974 sunnyclare001
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[虚拟币资讯]
币世界余勋6.2 缩表为弥补去年放水 而放水初期低点其实就在5.19两万七 长线以此为据
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在大部分人认为6月的50加息+缩表、基本在5月的下行中、得到有效释放、
, q. t5 U; f* S, \余勋也不例外、 & `3 T# S8 ~; p5 p/ Q& W
其中最关键的是美联储26号纪要、会灵活对待加息。
5 n' ~2 B8 ?; @# _- d6 C是保经济的重要决策！
0 U& Q W8 I* F+ T/ D6 A" l这其中美股迎来了阶段连涨、大饼也四连阳、 % H _! j& j/ o" [2 c
低点26700-32400、
9 Z9 F/ W& H* H. r, l! S; c反弹近六千点、以太低点反弹近300点。 2 P+ s6 P: J) [
但仅仅在缩表两个交易日、 # @+ C) [5 C5 y4 Y! m7 H; j
大饼回撤幅度达到三千点、以太近200点。
1 z/ o, u; P0 p: v2 V9 `涨幅就已回撤过半！
8 r# q- ?5 [: R所以暂时来看，期待的靴子落地效应基本告吹。 4 j) T' p% r$ h0 U7 {6 W
不是利空没有得到释放、是市场做多情绪无法调动。 1 q1 J" s1 ^- _: |9 @$ K
其次、
5 J7 p7 j! U S/ @ N4 d/ G缩表大致会延续至2024年初、
5 j" C) A6 Y4 P每月950亿、直至达到1.5万亿美元、
, y$ U" W$ w+ o' i6 _等于说、这期间会持续在蓄水池中进行抽水。 9 c7 _5 a, ~3 A6 |) d
美股想大肆上行也是有心无力。
+ J! ?- y! {/ F. Q7 T4 |, `但回到币圈、 9 B1 ~8 @( p8 m, A
去年牛市因5.19去中心化大跌、
8 a* `6 a/ s9 _+ B: ~ d在27000附近。美联储大幅度在放水、迎来第二轮周期牛市。
7 ]* Q* |3 {& @# I8 r! \8 \而现在弥补这个放水漏洞、而行情其实已经在放水底部附近。 % e. E1 g2 ^9 e9 `
个人认为、在经历了加息初期、中期恐慌、
. M+ o5 @$ ]' c9 g" e" i1 z/ P# K9 R缩表虽是实质利空，但终究是缓慢的。 * y$ j9 L( B, W, G" W- A( V
对当前的底部、影响有限。
& B5 J1 G* I$ n7 l; h2 z) H) X: ]2 ]最不济、缩表启动至结束、行情依然处于放水初期币圈阶段。也就是当前27000-30000附近。
0 Y! b& H3 d9 {: R所以27000、即是 + K- f$ Y Z0 P( _+ t; I9 E
去年5.19低点、也是今年5.12（加息50基点+缩表恐慌低点） , \ I/ ?9 F# ~
同时还是去年放水初期低点、
5 o6 s, ~6 ]8 K ~5 `也会是今年缩表弥补去年放水周期的低点。 " H+ Z: `. u' U: o) b% l, r9 m4 L+ w
由此得出的结论是、
( R! |" d* e1 W. V加息+缩表等实质利空、市场年度最大创伤、底部就在27000附近、而以太就在1700附近。
" b f. O# h0 {, q9 o- }4 i点位不会出现太大偏离。 ) a6 q9 x# k8 X# _% X
综合以上、 ; D' k# r+ S, k/ M; N! M
美股逐渐消化了加息、也开启缩表缓慢抽水、
$ \3 K# }0 |0 t3 q" x0 o* t b9 g在整个运行过程中、会由初期的恐慌、缓慢下行，逐渐适应、止跌、然后徐徐补涨。
+ H5 a& `7 g1 R8 F) s8 o那操作上、无非缺乏了长线效应、
' B1 [; O- d$ J, {4 i' u, T- D抬头大肆上涨、条件匮乏！下行、最大利空由当初的注水点、再到完全调离这些注入资金。低点其实也都在这附近。
6 _6 N, u* J& a7 ^7 P+ j( l7 b那行情其实还是围绕三万点、进行弱势整理。 4 z* b+ l4 c2 R
即难深跌、也难大涨，直至缩表有效、通胀得到控制。 9 M; R; n$ h9 @% J$ @9 p) n
美股适应上行、市场逐步接受开始回暖。
/ D4 L/ i, z/ ?; j- D! E9 E5 h4 h: }夜间美股走势平平、虽弱但不跌。
$ g5 N: j' o- @, R. i3 s大饼无需追空、给一空间点位、 * s% T. b4 i8 j0 C) R5 J
逢28000附近、以太1720附近可做短线接多点。
0 N- H5 e# B3 Y) A+ g( a高空需至31700-32000间布局、
1 s5 |) c) H# z0 u* p反之、空间不够、进场始终趋于震荡区中轨、 & \$ G/ u2 t' j0 i
得不偿失。
- B& N# a% W1 W6 g: S( |来源：金色财经 |
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