×
Array
(
[fid] => 6974
[description] => 专注于币圈最新最快资讯，数字货币应用及知识普及
[password] =>
[icon] => b1/common_6974_icon.png
[redirect] =>
[attachextensions] =>
[creditspolicy] => Array
(
[post] => Array
(
[usecustom] => 1
[cycletype] => 1
[cycletime] => 0
[rewardnum] => 5
[extcredits1] => 1
[extcredits2] => 1
[extcredits3] => 0
[extcredits4] => 0
[extcredits5] => 0
[extcredits6] => 0
[extcredits7] => 0
[extcredits8] => 0
[rid] => 1
[fid] => 6974
[rulename] => 发表主题
[action] => post
[fids] => 32,52,67,447,1120,1151,1156,6750,6762,6763,6766,6769,6772,6773,6787,6796,6808,6809,6810,6813,6814,6820,6829,6830,6846,6856,6864,6865,6827,6930,6931,6776,6858,6880,6764,6932,6871,6758,6905,1116,6788,6812,6798,6736,6759,6842,6966,6767,6828,6924,6935,6936,6938,6940,6941,6826,6909,6803,6919,6911,6908,6881,6920,6912,6913,6921,6925,6922,6789,6818,6819,6872,6928,6969,6889,6888,6917,6939,6947,6961,6937,6943,6970,6869,6900,6902,6783,6817,1111,6870,6821,6876,6952,6954,6960,6942,6910,6949,6962,6963,6964,6927,6926,6973,6728,6929,6874,6894,6896,6885,6857,6868,1113,6778,56,6844,6878,6802,6933,6811,6923,6877,6875,6918,6892,6757,6832,6833,6795,6793,6848,6837,6849,6850,6851,6852,6853,6854,6863,6882,6836,6790,6838,6794,6791,6873,555,6934,6958,6944,6945,6907,6779,6886,6950,6904,6956,6862,6957,6855,6955,6959,6914,6965,6971,6972,6953,6976,6824,6815,6891,6866,6979,6977,6765,6903,6948,6980,6981,6983,6799,6982,6951,6984,6975,6895,6845,6879,1121,6974
)
[reply] => Array
(
[usecustom] => 1
[cycletype] => 1
[cycletime] => 0
[rewardnum] => 0
[extcredits1] => 0
[extcredits2] => 1
[extcredits3] => 10
[extcredits4] => 0
[extcredits5] => 0
[extcredits6] => 0
[extcredits7] => 0
[extcredits8] => 0
[rid] => 2
[fid] => 6974
[rulename] => 发表回复
[action] => reply
[fids] => 32,52,67,447,1120,1151,1156,6750,6763,6766,6769,6772,6773,6787,6796,6808,6809,6810,6813,6814,6820,6829,6830,6846,6856,6864,6865,6827,6930,6931,6776,6858,6880,6764,6932,6871,6758,1116,6788,6812,6798,6736,6759,6842,6966,6767,6828,6924,6935,6936,6938,6940,6941,6826,6909,6803,6919,6911,6908,6881,6920,6912,6913,6921,6925,6922,6789,6818,6819,6872,6928,6969,6889,6888,6917,6939,6947,6961,6937,6943,6970,6869,6900,6902,6783,6817,1111,6870,6821,6876,6952,6954,6960,6942,6910,6949,6962,6963,6964,6927,6926,6973,6728,6929,6874,6894,6896,6885,6857,6868,1113,6778,56,6844,6878,6802,6933,6811,6923,6877,6875,6918,6892,6757,6832,6833,6795,6793,6848,6837,6849,6850,6851,6852,6853,6854,6863,6836,6790,6838,6794,6791,6873,555,6934,6958,6944,6945,6907,6779,6886,6950,6904,6956,6862,6957,6855,6955,6959,6914,6965,6971,6972,6953,6976,6824,6815,6891,6866,6979,6977,6765,6903,6948,6980,6981,6983,6799,6982,6951,6984,6975,6895,6845,6879,1121,6974
)
)
[formulaperm] => a:5:{i:0;s:0:"";i:1;s:0:"";s:7:"message";s:0:"";s:5:"medal";N;s:5:"users";s:0:"";}
[moderators] => 实习版主1
[rules] =>
[threadtypes] => Array
(
[required] => 1
[listable] => 1
[prefix] => 1
[types] => Array
(
[1590] => 论坛公告
[1752] => 公司优惠
[1603] => 虚拟币交流
[1753] => 数字钱包
[1754] => 虚拟币存提
[1755] => 交易所
[1655] => 虚拟币资讯
[1756] => 银行卡
[1757] => 第三方支付
[1760] => 币圈大佬
[1758] => 科技前沿
[1759] => 天策嗨聊
[1661] => 入驻合作
)
[icons] => Array
(
[1590] =>
[1752] =>
[1603] =>
[1753] =>
[1754] =>
[1755] =>
[1655] =>
[1756] =>
[1757] =>
[1760] =>
[1758] =>
[1759] =>
[1661] =>
)
[moderators] => Array
(
[1590] => 1
[1752] =>
[1603] =>
[1753] =>
[1754] =>
[1755] =>
[1655] =>
[1756] =>
[1757] =>
[1760] =>
[1758] =>
[1759] => 1
[1661] =>
)
)
[threadsorts] => Array
(
)
[viewperm] => 9 26 22 11 12 13 14 15 27 43 44 60 61 62 63 64 19 31 67 68 69 73 75 76 83 84 87 90 91 92 33 38 57 58 65 66 74 77 79 80 85 86 1 2 3 7 8
[postperm] => 22 11 12 13 14 15 27 43 44 60 61 62 63 64 19 67 68 69 73 75 76 83 84 87 90 91 92 33 38 57 58 65 66 74 77 79 80 85 86 1 2 3
[replyperm] => 26 22 11 12 13 14 15 27 43 44 60 61 62 63 64 19 67 68 69 73 75 76 83 84 87 90 91 92 33 38 57 58 65 66 74 77 79 80 85 86 1 2 3
[getattachperm] => 26 22 11 12 13 14 15 27 43 44 60 61 62 63 64 19 67 68 69 73 75 76 83 84 87 90 91 92 33 38 57 58 65 66 74 77 79 80 85 86 1 2 3
[postattachperm] => 26 22 11 12 13 14 15 27 43 44 60 61 62 63 64 19 67 68 69 73 75 76 83 84 87 90 91 92 33 38 57 58 65 66 74 77 79 80 85 86 1 2 3
[postimageperm] => 26 22 11 12 13 14 15 27 43 44 60 61 62 63 64 19 67 68 69 73 75 76 83 84 87 90 91 92 33 38 57 58 65 66 74 77 79 80 85 86 1 2 3
[spviewperm] =>
[seotitle] =>
[keywords] =>
[seodescription] =>
[supe_pushsetting] =>
[modrecommend] => Array
(
[open] => 0
[num] => 10
[imagenum] => 0
[imagewidth] => 300
[imageheight] => 250
[maxlength] => 0
[cachelife] => 0
[dateline] => 0
)
[threadplugin] => Array
(
)
[replybg] =>
[extra] => a:2:{s:9:"namecolor";s:0:"";s:9:"iconwidth";s:2:"60";}
[jointype] => 0
[gviewperm] => 0
[membernum] => 0
[dateline] => 0
[lastupdate] => 0
[activity] => 0
[founderuid] => 0
[foundername] =>
[banner] =>
[groupnum] => 0
[commentitem] =>
[relatedgroup] =>
[picstyle] => 0
[widthauto] => 0
[noantitheft] => 0
[noforumhidewater] => 0
[noforumrecommend] => 0
[livetid] => 0
[price] => 0
[fup] => 6729
[type] => forum
[name] => 虚拟币讨论大厅
[status] => 1
[displayorder] => 3
[styleid] => 0
[threads] => 28634
[posts] => 467945
[todayposts] => 39
[yesterdayposts] => 89
[rank] => 2
[oldrank] => 2
[lastpost] => 2777225 比特币面临拒绝——近期上涨后阻力区限制上涨（转） 1761735172 天策-菱玖
[domain] =>
[allowsmilies] => 1
[allowhtml] => 1
[allowbbcode] => 1
[allowimgcode] => 1
[allowmediacode] => 0
[allowanonymous] => 0
[allowpostspecial] => 21
[allowspecialonly] => 0
[allowappend] => 0
[alloweditrules] => 1
[allowfeed] => 0
[allowside] => 0
[recyclebin] => 1
[modnewposts] => 2
[jammer] => 1
[disablewatermark] => 0
[inheritedmod] => 0
[autoclose] => 0
[forumcolumns] => 3
[catforumcolumns] => 0
[threadcaches] => 0
[alloweditpost] => 1
[simple] => 16
[modworks] => 1
[allowglobalstick] => 1
[level] => 0
[commoncredits] => 0
[archive] => 0
[recommend] => 0
[favtimes] => 0
[sharetimes] => 0
[disablethumb] => 0
[disablecollect] => 0
[ismoderator] => 0
[threadtableid] => 0
[allowreply] =>
[allowpost] =>
[allowpostattach] =>
)
[虚拟币交流]
艾略特波浪专家：牛市结束，比特币价格可能跌至 7 万美元或更低（转）
[复制链接]
|
当前离线
经验:
天策币:
活跃币:
策小分:
总在线: 5049 小时
本月在线: 26 小时
|
|
以精准市场预测而闻名的艾略特波浪分析师兼 Ledn 首席投资官乔恩·格洛弗 (Jon Glover) 与看涨共识背道而驰，并发出严厉警告：在最近从 126,000 美元跌至 104,000 美元之后，始于 2023 年初的比特币牛市似乎已经结束。
7 z/ c, }2 v2 X3 C
2 n. e% \7 b! C格洛弗现在预测熊市将持续，价格可能跌至 70,000 美元或更低，较目前的市场价格 108,000 美元左右下跌 35% 以上。- u1 r. r1 C: U
& h, q8 c0 g G2 C0 k$ R! ?( g
“我坚信我们已经完成了五浪上涨，现在正进入熊市，这可能至少会持续到2026年底，”格洛弗说道。“我预计比特币的交易价格将在7万美元到8万美元之间，甚至可能更低。”
Z3 Q- k% q) k4 @' V0 J6 x7 f' [- g1 r
格洛弗解释说，虽然不能排除比特币重新测试其约 124,000 美元的历史高点或小幅攀升的可能性，但现在整体趋势已经转为看跌，这意味着几个月后价格可能会走低。; W7 O) x& {9 F# `. \0 J/ V
0 \* v9 e% _# d艾略特波浪理论7 F0 R% I; R( g5 A( v ^
艾略特波浪理论由拉尔夫·纳尔逊·艾略特于1938年提出，其基础是投资者的集体心理会以可预测的周期波动。这些周期在主趋势方向上形成一个五浪结构，其中包括三个推动浪和两个修正浪。
% P# g9 f+ s* `/ r9 `9 E% c: }
' _1 R4 ?; W6 C* H4 c2 P! L0 i比特币的看涨五浪模式始于 2022 年底，当时价格低于 20,000 美元，第五浪在本月初达到顶峰，创下 126,000 美元以上的新高。7 ?* W& k$ ^3 ]) x% Y }+ u
5 c ^# w: g6 y- ]+ m& X7 k
最初，预计第五波疫情将使价格到年底达到 14 万至 15 万美元之间。格洛弗打了这个电话8 月初，在比特币价格从 120,000 美元大幅下跌至 112,000 美元之后，市场看跌担忧情绪日益加剧。1 U! c$ @5 {. J* p. f
! \, A% N1 j; }" b0 D! b虽然价格如预期般上涨，但本月涨势在 125,000 美元以上停滞，促使格洛弗警告称，如果比特币价格屡次未能守住该水平，将削弱牛市的支撑位。随后，比特币上周跌至10.5万美元，确认牛市提前结束。- o) r# t5 h. r3 u
R3 J, j( n* B. U ?
“既然我们已经跌破10.8万美元，我准备判断一下，我们究竟是走在下图橙色的路径上，从而有望涨至14.5万美元；还是走在HS的路径上，这意味着我们已经见顶了，”格洛弗说道。“我的判断是：比特币的牛市结束了！”: Y2 V% m1 p, ?) ]
1 @5 C' l8 W3 @2 L比特币的看涨五浪结构已经结束。（Jon Glover，TradingView）1 }1 E7 Y- n7 b* o5 P
这种看跌的预期与比特币的历史趋势相符：每次减半事件发生后约18个月，比特币价格都会达到峰值，然后进入熊市。最近一次减半发生在2024年4月。+ T; @* Z. p! d7 L
/ t6 X' W3 V2 {
Amberdata 的数据显示，BTC 在 Deribit 挂牌的看跌期权（提供下行保护）的交易价格高于 2026 年 9 月到期的看涨期权，这支持了 Glover 的看跌情绪。这表明一些交易员正在为持续到明年的下行风险做准备。
: V4 c! x: I! K6 d" k$ S8 b6 Q# P% y. \& G) ?% ~
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
当前离线
经验:
天策币:
活跃币:
策小分:
总在线: 19398 小时
本月在线: 93 小时
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
