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[虚拟币交流]
彭博社：比特币突破10万美元大关或将引发下一轮大崩盘（转）
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故事亮点
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4 ~2 k! K/ [+ {9 V2 x b. \这[url=]加密货币市场持续承压[/url]比特币价格难以守住 10 万美元关口，原本应该是一个里程碑式的关口如今却成了压力点。市场情绪悲观，加密货币总市值已跌至约 3.34 万亿美元，主要指标也显示上涨势头减弱。比特币在跌破关键支撑位和移动平均线后，目前徘徊在 102,405 美元附近，而以太坊、Solana 和 XRP 的价格也持续下跌。 据彭博社高级宏观策略师称[url=]迈克·麦格隆[/url]目前的水平正在从庆祝点转变为压力点。麦格隆在其最新分析中指出，当前市场过于平静，甚至有些不自然的寂静，而历史表明，这种平静往往预示着波动的到来。比特币通常以大幅波动著称，但如今波动幅度却很小，麦格隆认为这表明市场表面之下正在积聚压力，而非强劲上涨。 市场变得过于安逸麦格隆指出，目前市场存在他所谓的“极度自满”情绪。股市稳定，波动率指数接近历史低位，比特币即便接近一个重要的里程碑水平，也几乎没有波动。他的研究将比特币的50周移动趋势与芝加哥期权交易所波动率指数（VIX）和标普500指数的已实现波动率等波动率指标进行了比较。这些指标表明，传统市场和加密货币市场都处于异常平静的状态。 麦格隆认为，这种平静很少能持续。VIX指数（通常被称为华尔街恐慌指数）的长期平均水平在19左右，麦格隆预计股市最终会回到这个水平附近。这种转变可能会同时引发股市和股市的动荡。 比特币的“生死攸关区”比特币价格一直徘徊在 11 万美元以下，并反复跌至 10 万美元附近，走势不明朗。麦格隆表示，比特币目前正处于他所谓的“生死攸关”的价格区间。这意味着两种情况将会发生。如果比特币价格保持稳定并继续上涨，则可能延续其上涨周期。如果未能守住涨势，价格可能会回落至 5.6 万美元左右的长期均线附近。 从历史上看，比特币在牛市周期的中期经常会遇到类似的情况。炒作热潮消退，兴奋情绪降温，价格走势回归分析师所说的“均值回归”，也就是价格重新回到正常的趋势线。 加密货币依然追随华尔街另一个重要的细节是比特币与标普500指数目前的关联性。两者之间的联系依然紧密，相关系数高于0.53。这意味着比特币的走势仍然更像一种科技资产，而非价值储存手段或数字黄金。如果股市出现波动，比特币很可能也会受到同样的压力。这种关联性挑战了比特币已经脱离传统金融体系的观点。 接下来会发生什么？比特币守住 10 万美元大关已不再是强势的证明。对麦格隆而言，这已成为一个关键时刻。比特币要么巩固其作为成熟全球资产的地位，要么表明市场涨势过快。接下来的走势将揭示 10 万美元究竟是更大涨势的开端，还是更深层次回调的转折点。 不错过加密货币世界的任何重要时刻！% F4 h( t) I: |( `
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这波要是真破了10万，估计又得炸锅，别太嗨，小心翻车 |
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