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世界杯期间,社交网络上的气氛无比和谐,原本对立的球迷手挽着手结伴走上天台,相互谦让着最佳站位,那如果人人都输钱,那么赢家到底在哪呢?其实博彩业的真正赢家有且只有一个,那就是博彩公司。而博彩公司稳赚不赔的秘诀,就在于利用赔率。简单说一下什么叫“赔率”。假如天朝队赢球的赔率是1赔2,意思就是说,你花了一块钱赌天朝队赢,那一旦赌对了就能拿到1*2也就是2块钱,就这么简单。在一个没有中间商的乌托邦里,赔率应该刚好可以平衡下注双方的得失,如果大家认为,巴西队比天朝队强一点,有80块钱都押巴西队赢球,只有20块钱押天朝赢球的话,那为了保持平衡,博彩公司就会把天朝队赢球的频率设置为1赔5,巴西队赢球的频率设置为1赔1.25,这样的话博彩公司的总收入为100元,如果天朝队赢了,就给押天朝队的球迷发20*5=100元。巴西队赢了,就给押巴西队的球迷发80*1.25=100元。博彩公司一顿操作,收支相抵,一分钱不赚。不过这个赔率是在“没有中间商赚差价”下的理想情况。 1 a' K' {2 d4 u, u& L
! q2 g( Z. S/ n2 r! e% C, E$ J而现实中,博彩公司当然是要挣钱的,他们挣钱的方式就是压低赔率,从押注的总资金中抽成。我们继续来看刚才的例子,押巴西的资金是80元,押天朝的资金是20元。如果博彩公司想从中赚5块钱的话,就可以把天朝队赢球的赔率从1赔5调低到1赔4.75,巴西队从1赔1.25调低到1赔1.19。这么一来,博彩公司的总收入是100元。但无论是巴西还是天朝赢球,都只需要给出95元,稳赚5%,这就是博彩公司赚钱的方法,这5%就相当于押注者给博彩公司交的手续费,明白了这个套路,我们还可以从赛前的赔率中,计算出博彩公司可以赚走多少钱。比如在2018年世界杯,西班牙对阵伊朗的比赛前,某家博彩公司出了这样的赔率。通过简单的数学计算就能发现,每116块钱中,博彩公司就要抽走16块钱,相当于下注资金中的13.8%都被博彩公司抽走了。看到这里你就明白了,只要调整赔率,博彩公司就可以做到稳赚不赔,而且跟球迷不同,博彩公司并不太关心球队的强弱,他们只需要盯着下注双方的资金分布就可以了。那博彩公司有没有可能亏损呢,理论上也有可能,比如在刚才的例子中,博彩公司为天朝队设置了1赔4.75的赔率,但如果天朝队突然天降梅西,导致总下注的100元中有30元压了天朝赢,那博彩公司就有可能亏本了。因为万一天朝队真赢了,博彩公司就要付出142元,而总收入只有100元,这就亏大了。 , j& B C% p6 ]0 Y1 n' {/ ~1 S/ ?, ~3 A, Z
当然在现实中,这种情况几乎不可能出现,因为博彩公司手上握有大量的比赛数据,甚至他们会找人对赛前情况进行搜集,所以他们开出的赔率基本上反映了双方球迷的心理预期和下注情况,不会有太大的偏差,更重要的是,赔率是可以实时变动的,随着下注资金的变化,博彩公司也会通过技术手段实时调整赔率,如果押天朝的人太多,系统就会调低天朝队的赔率,提高巴西赢球的赔率,引导更多的资金去买巴西赢,再次形成平衡。如果你打开一些国际上主流的博彩网站就会发现,赔率的变动相当频繁,这都是为了保证博彩公司可以顺利赚钱。所以说博彩与其说是不同下注者之间的对抗,还不如说是下注者和博彩公司之间的对抗,既然博彩公司能够稳赚不赔,那输钱的人还能是谁呢?
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