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[lastpost] => 2787932 美国商品期货交易委员会（CFTC）加密货币监管：美国启动数字资产试点项目（转） 1765261857 小钱儿
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据华尔街资深人士兼数学家称[url=]弗雷德·克鲁格[/url]比特币熊市的出现恰好有两个原因：第一，当全球流动性变为负值时，例如美联储收紧货币政策；第二，由比特币特有的冲击（例如 Mt. Gox 事件、矿工事件或欺诈事件）导致的强制抛售。 克鲁格用数据佐证了他的观点，并补充说其他一切都只是噪音。交易员将“熊市”定义为资产价格下跌20%或更多；因此，价格处于低位，预计还将持续下跌一段时间。 比特币熊市的出现只有两个原因：) e4 r5 `3 Y. m! Z
( m5 r* [3 \1 N2 ^8 W* g1. 全球流动性转为负值（美联储/美元收紧货币政策）+ S3 W0 |% q3 X- B! w/ D- K7 v
2. 比特币特有的冲击（Mt. Gox交易所、矿工、欺诈）导致的强制抛售
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+ E9 N* V) C/ ~8 h& Y[url=]克鲁格[/url]列举了比特币进入熊市的几个例子，以及其背后的触发因素。 2011年，比特币价格从32美元暴跌至2美元，跌幅高达93%，这与量化宽松政策的结束和美元走紧同时发生。在此期间，股市也悄然进入了熊市。 从 2013 年到 2015 年，比特币价格从近 1100 美元跌至 200 美元，跌幅达 85%，这一时期恰逢 Mt. Gox 交易所倒闭和大规模强制抛售。 从2017年到2018年，当[url=]比特币[/url]价格从 2 万美元跌至 3000 美元，跌幅高达 84%，这一时期恰逢美联储开始加息并实施量化紧缩政策。全球美元流动性也达到峰值，而 ICO 杠杆则经历了剧烈的平仓。 2020 年 3 月，比特币价格从 9000 美元跌至 3800 美元，几天内下跌了约 60%，这一时期出现了全球追缴保证金和美元短缺的情况。 2021年至2022年间，比特币价格从约69,000美元暴跌至15,500美元，跌幅高达77%，而与此同时，量化紧缩政策也出台，经历了40年来最快的加息速度。加密货币行业内部一系列的失败，包括Terra (LUNA)、3AC、Celsius和FTX的倒闭，引发了市场上的强制抛售潮。 没有例外吗？克鲁格指出，除了 2019 年的回调（这是一次反弹失败，而不是熊市）、2021 年的天朝挖矿禁令（可以被视为一次调整，而不是周期重置）以及 2023-2025 年的下跌（没有出现收紧和强制抛售）之外，自 2013 年以来，比特币的每一次熊市都伴随着负流动性冲击或强制清算压倒了需求。 [url=]比特币[/url]比特币延续了自10月初开始的下跌趋势，并创下一系列更低的高点。截至发稿时，比特币在过去24小时内上涨3.21%至90,015美元，较10月份创下的126,198美元的历史高点下跌28.84%。这种领先的加密货币此前曾在11月底跌至接近80,000美元的低点。
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