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[lastpost] => 2774693 比特币又是跌下11万美元了啊 1760763639 jackcool1011
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过去一周,比特币[BTC]一直受困于低流动性流入,导致自 8 月 14 日重新创下历史新高以来已下跌 10%。
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4 f" s6 _1 X1 @* s* F值得注意的是,这种流动性枯竭通常预示着潜在的看跌情景,因为当市场达到季节性高潮时,投资者开始抛售资产。
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- Z9 l1 ~8 Z! p- G- ?! A$ \! E8 s然而,新的宏观经济见解认为,尽管逆转的风险仍然存在,但市场仍然看涨。3 b) y# @7 W e1 R `
0 X" V, Q. Z+ t& l) h% ^宏观信号依然支持1 x3 O6 }7 V" \6 O; v8 X
美国宏观经济指标阿尔弗莱克塔尔根据美联储金融压力指数 (FFSI),比特币和标准普尔 500 指数在未来几天都有进一步上涨的空间。$ s) n/ l$ o6 b! m
# d$ w8 V9 g( A: V: [! J* o该指数追踪市场紧张程度,高于 0 的高读数表示卖方压力,而低于 0 的数值则反映市场平静和购买兴趣。
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从历史上看,该指标曾预测过重大的市场波动,包括2020年封锁期间。截至发稿时,FFSI低于0,预示着未来仍有增长空间。
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; k# ?% s! K+ d% z市场情绪似乎更倾向于比特币而非标准普尔 500 指数,尤其是考虑到过去一年的表现,比特币上涨了 86.2%,而标准普尔指数则上涨了 15.3%。阿尔忒弥斯.& x' i$ p7 H, h+ c7 E
7 U1 z9 z9 X! q" d) [. e7 P- L& k$ A这表明,如果购买恢复,投资者可能会将资金投入比特币而不是标准普尔,因为他们的风险偏好依然强劲。
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5 w6 ]: X1 z0 I- a$ n* N著名加密货币分析师 Joao Wedson 最近将此描述为市场“平静/观察”阶段,但警告称“价格走势通常比宏观指标反应更快”,从而使资产处于灰色地带。# \) {' R2 i. @% T2 c. p6 ^( W
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他补充道,0 I5 W- O- ^6 L% p3 c
6 A* v8 j7 U) l“如果FFSI跌破并保持在0以上,这将是一个警告信号,表明美国局势可能不稳定,并直接影响风险市场。”
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韦德森警告称,随着我们进入 2025 年末和 2026 年初,这种情况可能会引发“亚洲主要经济体”更广泛的经济不稳定,从而可能阻止比特币的上涨。
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他敦促投资者做好准备,以免措手不及。$ U; s( d9 F3 {7 e( h
H! G: n( B' h3 d. H亚洲比特币市场再度走强
# b' X8 @* Q' l6 {$ \2 w5 p亚洲市场正显示出复苏的早期迹象,随着韩国溢价指数达到 0.3,投资者再次对比特币进行买入。CryptoQuant.
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此前,该指数一直处于持续的下跌趋势中,并以红色标记。持续的上涨趋势可能会引发更多资金流入,尤其是来自新投资者群体的资金。' B& t. X9 x8 o8 j
3 q/ b! d+ X7 m- }) q+ Q相比之下,截至发稿时,关键市场指标 Coinbase 溢价指数已降至 0.017,这表明美国投资者正在增加卖方活动。
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然而,如果这一指标反弹,它可能会增强围绕比特币日益增长的看涨情绪。
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宏观偏暖,量弱,先小仓吧7 C3 e5 q- E" m S8 g
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当前离线
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总在线: 18221 小时
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当前离线
经验:
天策币:
活跃币:
策小分:
总在线: 156 小时
本月在线: 10 小时
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这种行情,我还是宁愿相信宏观信号,继续看涨比特币。 |
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