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[lastpost] => 2768006 比特币、以太坊 ETF 上周吸引 19 亿美元投资，贝莱德 IBIT 领涨（转） 1758561104 jackcool1011
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美元的急速衰落让比特币拥护者重燃"超级比特币化"梦想。8 Q, a0 Z+ {- d6 m/ c
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但几乎没有证据表明美元消亡意味着比特币的胜利，反而有大量迹象指向普遍的社会混乱。
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美元消亡：货币崩溃的教训/ o0 e& d5 w% \" R; r5 F
Blockstream前副总裁、经历过阿根廷金融动荡的费尔南多·尼克里奇警告称，期盼法币消亡的比特币信徒并不清楚自己在期待什么。1 K6 j7 x) v( I3 x/ l& z1 V2 ^
8 } O7 ~( O3 ]0 j2 M"庆祝美元崩溃的比特币玩家根本不明白自己在要求什么...这不是解放，而是你祖母因为积蓄蒸发不得不吃猫粮...美元消亡并不代表比特币获胜。"! T$ a4 ?, t' X3 R6 a3 c |
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在真正货币崩溃时期，水和食物（而非数字资产）等基本生活必需品会成为唯一具有实际价值的东西。7 o6 q4 U3 ?) n8 }; k4 I3 D1 `, h
) {- A% S& D5 C1 c1 W+ h& P' d许多幻想突然过渡到比特币经济体系的美国人，其实从未经历过真正的社会崩溃。- {! x( Q* P2 T4 `
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尼克里奇警告说，现实远比他们想象的更加混乱，他们实际上并不会欢迎所期待的美元消亡结局。
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全美范围内的惨淡景象指向压力重重的法币体系
3 y: F7 Q Z) _! b: [6 L美国住房市场从未如此高不可攀。2025年单户住宅价格中位数创下历史新高，所需收入是2019年的两倍。3 o8 G* l8 s2 F' \' J8 E
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房价收入比达到历史最高水平，住房拥有率降至历史最低点，数百万租房者将30%至50%的收入用于支付房租。
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% C& N# g5 i& n2 L+ k4 D% L工资与上涨的住房成本之间的失衡意味着大多数潜在购房者被排除在市场之外，社会压力持续加剧。' c/ O \' Z/ u3 e' ~9 e% S2 J
- G& M0 V7 H4 N L7 X" t9 _雪上加霜的是，2025年8月美国失业率微升至4.3%，为2021年底以来最高水平，更广泛的就业不足率达到8.1%。) T5 y: H' a* i4 L
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这些数字掩盖了劳动力市场无法跟上通胀步伐或实际工资停滞所造成的痛苦。, H5 z' B5 q$ O
, E& E* n$ G+ h8 ~+ A在失业率上升和房价上涨的背景下，2025年8月美国国债突破37万亿美元，超过国家经济总量的两倍。
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借贷成本持续上升，国债利息支出甚至超过国防开支。
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国会预算办公室预计，由于疫情期间的借贷和社会支出扩大，债务水平比原计划提前五年达到这一里程碑。5 ]3 \. I' L3 Y4 U0 e7 q
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每五个月增加1万亿美元的债务增长不可持续，可能推高利率并挤占投资空间。* k: O# r( q7 p- I
/ j% x: K/ ^1 {0 Q, U# A6 S3 ]当法币失效时，比特币不会自动获胜
; b+ o! a. g6 Z0 H2 u& O( S9 o美元指数今年对主要货币下跌超10%，创1973年以来最剧烈跌幅。这种下跌与不可预测的经济政策、保护主义和扩张性减税有关。% C! {& _3 W6 y9 }0 J1 z: `0 r; M' }# K
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随着美元贬值，进口价格上升，普通美国人购买力下降，通胀恶化，家庭预算紧张。
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) s! z P2 W3 ~- i贬值进一步给住房、就业和债务带来压力，加剧了系统脆弱性。3 r' K A5 j2 s* ?4 ]- B
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所有这些严峻指标都描绘出美国经济根基的惨淡图景，而美元通常被视为世界其他经济体的晴雨表。如果说世界上最坚挺的货币都面临压力，这对整个法币体系意味着什么？ V/ y9 b- u3 ~# w, x# C) R. L
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尽管许多比特币拥护者高呼"比特币能解决这个问题"，但超级比特币化（即认为法币失效时人们会大规模转向比特币的观点）是个危险的幻想。
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这种观点忽视了历史和社会现实。当货币崩溃时，信任会蒸发，基本生存需求将取代抽象理想。. [7 [3 k* G3 v, T5 u
! h4 I6 d* i: j, K) E! I/ h植根于阿根廷法币崩溃经历的尼克里奇作证指出，所谓"解放"的希望是天真的：崩溃只意味着贫困、动荡和苦难。; T9 X( U& D# a) _+ z$ \
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当社会安全网和市场规范瓦解时，金融混乱对弱势群体的打击最严重。
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比特币或许能提供通胀法币之外的替代选择，但美元消亡带来的不是自由，而是对多数人而言的灾难与痛苦。
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