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[lastpost] => 2648706 骗子的遗憾$7100万比特币窃贼向受害者发送以太坊（转） 1715284691 人生如赌
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当前离线
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首先回顾下本周发生的事情：熊：美国ZF开始将其查获的暗网电商丝绸之路的$ G) k/ y% L7 Y7 r. X/ ]
4 s4 x# R/ a+ U- d1 k) r总计30174枚比特币转向了交易所，相关人士认为这是抛售的前兆，因此带来了恐慌，" l2 i( {! @& P2 U# _* l8 v+ J! u
) N! ?+ R! [9 ]) }7 z o方舟基金，灰度基金都抛售了比特币。这导致币比特币一度跌到64500附近。8 y& B( @* x( y! C
9 U1 O' Y1 ?+ R/ W# ?$ e- p! B- K |% N1 L* ?7 U
& }# N! L9 F8 U5 ~& x 牛：（1）Fidelity，Blackrock都在持续增持比特币，其中blackroak增持3100枚，1 N! _8 w3 a7 ?, T; M; h0 c' M
8 _$ c9 w4 }$ o6 n
Fidelity增持1100枚（2）神秘地址以100枚为单位疯狂购入比特币，越跌越买，四天
. J" @0 N( X" O
D# B# E: k3 S% a" p9 j K内抄底2170枚。个人猜测可能是某国ZF在买入，如果未来的有一天，某个国家ZF( l: S% d4 M1 j7 E: w9 W
3 p8 j4 }( L4 T* b2 R宣布其持续买入比特币，可能就是准备抛售，见大顶的时候（3）usdt4天内增发30亿7 m' R- c; W$ h3 M0 d: k
# e+ J9 o% S7 q& ?枚，在过去的日子，以周为单位，USDT增发都会带来币价大涨聊完了新闻，我们回到$ W4 ]) h7 w0 V# {) U; O
v) M9 L, N4 O9 l& V/ z( W6 M0 lk线。首先看比特币：从日线上看，比特币在两个红色矩形之间（60000，72000）形成
$ g9 v4 Z+ p+ u: A- u! g; K {: `! w, W0 g+ Q' q6 C7 x r
震荡，振幅逐步收窄，很快就要选择出方向。考虑HSEMA9逐步逼近蓝色EMA18，死
+ L/ }: F3 E8 g9 r! b5 N
+ K3 V& j* g6 w4 N/ y2 q! F叉一旦形成，上涨趋势会被破环，比特币将测试下方红色矩形6万的位置。因此，为了5 a. a8 ^* V- ?3 Q9 T! Z
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避免死叉的形成，比特币需要快速反弹。反弹只有突破绿色区间71300的位置才可以确
& ~5 _2 t- i8 Y
$ J9 ~5 y' F1 `8 R( u定一个更高的高点，从而走出下降趋势。如果无法站稳71300，再次测试60000只是时
. C$ ~2 O# u% v" V8 F
1 R$ E# k1 w% p% n间问题。如果6万不保，下方HS矩形是大支撑，也就是53000~50000的区间。个人认! p3 d* M2 @0 X6 |0 Q( X5 O0 R
" n5 E' W9 i& C8 r+ `为这是最坏的情况，不认可一些人认为去3万。
2 C/ Z" o) v4 @
+ F" Z" _+ L& O, ^7 n3 W+ ?从4小时来看基本和日线一致，无需赘述。不过4小时的EMA200形成了一个比较强的支撑0 Q- f/ K4 ^- ^& q7 X% {2 ^/ p- d. l
1 O1 X- h1 V* J: u! V; h' a$ ^! n，已经测试4次进行了反弹。本人也多次在EMA200做多吃到了短线涨幅。但考虑一个支撑
3 F" K, J3 A2 G8 `8 D6 u' k% t% s1 @/ O& `% O
位被多次测试，那么其跌破的概率就越来越多。因此，如果比特币不能快速收复73100，: t( E; j# H' i- s5 b
1 _3 P. C w# vEMA200跌破只是时间问题，下一步就看60000的表现。2 u1 |6 r! L0 w9 f3 b
( ?9 I' n/ J! X' J p3 v考虑美股连涨5个月有短期见顶的信号，结合美国可能抛售的3万枚比特币。本人近期看空，2 T6 l3 d5 R9 e. D8 e
' B+ @! h l: u8 e* P
认为比特币至少会去次6万。; L r H& Q+ D- \' \6 X
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- {/ u0 J+ X0 m7 ~6 o# t抛售量这个也是很多的了吧 |
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