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[lastpost] => 2649563 日元崩了:日本上市公司转战比特币作对冲(转) 1715618609 九嶷风
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比特币减半即将到来,距离减半仅剩约10天。面对即将到来的比特币减半,我们应该如何应对未来的行情呢?
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根据过去几次比特币减半的历史数据来看,通常比特币在减半后会先出现一波下跌,然后经过数月的盘整后,会迎来
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3 u* o- Z7 T$ W0 x上涨行情并创造新的历史高点。根据目前比特币的日线图观察,我们可以看到比特币价格目前正在进行三角盘整,意味著比
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特币可能会迎来向上或向下的行情。
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3 m* |, j, m5 Z: B0 H/ s8 a" J此外,我们还可以从MACD和牛市平均线中获取一些信息。目前MACD仍处于盘整阶段,而牛市平均线已达到51000 - 53000美元。
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虽然比特币ETF的加持可能会使行情产生有所不同的变化,但我个人仍认为比特币可能会迎来一波回调阶段,然后在减半后进行盘/ d/ _3 Y6 N4 v
/ [" W' V, m0 t整,最终突破向上。9 ] Y8 S$ I' b7 z" G4 }: ~
2 w: Z- V( W( G 我认为比特币的OTC市场对此有著重大影响。比特币的产出一直源自于矿工,而他们一直在OTC市场向大型机构出售比特币。! h% `$ ^( G+ {& g. Q- I1 K2 t; a% t
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最近的报告显示,随著比特币需求的增加和卖方流动性的下降,比特币的流动存量已经下降到历史最低水平。分析师估计,目前
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, b, N7 b% \. L7 }) o1 i比特币的卖方流动性库存只能满足未来6-12个月的需求增长。9 ~0 B! q( k1 h/ m0 B5 ]% ?0 Q5 w
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根据以上信息,比特币的流动性库存只能满足未来6-12个月的需求增长,这意味著如果比特币的价格要大幅上涨,先决条件便是需
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要清空所有的库存,才能导致比特币价格上涨。随著比特币ETF对比特币的需求不断增加,我认为6-12个月只是伴随著现有情况而作
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( J- u+ t+ i, c出的估算,因此我们除了关注比特币价格外,还应该关注比特币ETF的供求情况和表现。
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) H' t4 [% G4 X& J综合以上信息,我认为比特币可能会像过去的行情一样,在减半后先迎来一波回调,然后等待OTC市场的比特币库存不足时,价格自
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8 L& \2 x7 s1 `7 |, L' m! L+ M- C1 h然会上涨。届时,各大型机构将无法在任何OTC市场中购买比特币,可能会转而在现货市场进行购买,这可能会推动比特币价格上涨。
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