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[lastpost] => 2801491 赛勒：“我们购买真正的比特币”（转） 1769670786 人生如赌
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[虚拟币交流]
比特币一度冲破3万美元！现货ETF、触底的波动率唤醒上涨攻势？（转载）
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比特币(BTC)在7月中旬上冲至31,800美元高点，创下去年5月以来的新高后，就开始不$ P, Y7 f' j0 S$ d
断阴跌，甚至多次跌破2.8万美元。$ G; {: w0 A$ \+ n5 t
但昨日开始，比特币价格似乎又再次扭转颓势，突破盘整区间从29,000美元附近一举上攻，一度在今晨站上8 z6 s6 @" x4 F7 F
30,000美元大关，截稿前略有下滑暂报29,862美元。
( A( \+ i. G" S9 s5 u波动率历史低点，爆发到来？
+ \$ i7 d( j! T$ g9 l近期，研究机构K33 Research发布一份最新比特币研报，指出比特币当前5日波动率已低于传统证券、甚至是黄
* R4 ?1 j* l4 m% H金，K33分析师认为比特币正处于「火山爆发」前夕。(历史中同样情况时，上涨的机率比下跌高一些)
U! i' l. Q9 E I7 @3 M从Coinglass数据可以看到，近期比特币价格的波动率大概落在1.3%左右，这个水平是自从2020年牛市启动前的
! ^3 j" w3 p- ^$ T1 _8 F8 ^低点。0 `# K7 \. ~6 q! x8 [3 }
全球经济将迈入升息周期尾声5 _4 w$ h( d8 @+ \; [
另一方面，上周五(4)美国劳工部公布了非农就业报告，非农就业的增加人数创下了2020年12月以来最低纪录，突
) A1 w1 a9 D1 v* o显了经济降温的迹象，并预计将缓解联准会在下次会议上升息的压力。
" E& X2 R/ Q D6 d- D目前芝商所的FedWatch数据也显示，市场预测联准会在下次利率会议上维持在现行利率区间5.25%~5.50%的机
( z- `# }! O. t1 {0 `2 y* q率高达86.5%，本波升息循环可以将正式结束。9 K) q* ?/ u. a3 R2 w
美国多间银行也对外表示全球升息周期有可能落幕，据财富周五报导，亚特兰大联邦准备银行行长Raphael$ d: O. X4 Y! {5 L5 c( s C4 W4 f
Bostic公开表明他认为没有必要进一步加息。" |; ~0 T% S+ t- {8 j& L i0 u
“我预计经济将以相当有序的方式放缓，而7月份的非农就业数据-18.7万人的增幅-将继续这一步伐，我预计这种
9 H. a, v# Z8 s9 s3 f情况不会在短时间内结束。”
7 o6 Z9 ~& E" V纽约联准银行总裁威廉斯(John Williams)也在近期接受纽约时报专访指出，未来的通膨如果如外界预期般持续下
% c' e/ @4 L6 W' y2 y/ Q降，他认为联准会(Fed)不排除明年甚至可能开始降息，但一切有待更多数据公布。6 ~ a# ?* N' a- g5 B2 i
比特币ETF即将通过？* S, N; Z# h O$ x. R& W
另外一个可能会大举推动比特币上涨的原因还有一个，由多家华尔街巨头推动的比特币现货ETF。据Bloomberg& a. ^/ w, j$ [5 @
资深ETF分析师Eric Balchunas昨晚最新贴文，他表示：Galaxy执行长Mike Novogratz在今早的财报电话会议上
) J: |4 |. [( X: N3 ^表示，据贝莱德和景顺投信内部的联系人透露，比特币现货ETF的批准可能会在四到六个月内，而不是「是否」的8 u, [# d, i- a. V7 T( f/ B R
问题。8 ?; |3 G- G4 Y9 i+ `- y
似乎有很大的自信判断市场即将迎来现货ETF。% ^3 F0 B6 B! m9 Q
6 p S1 \& K! H, _% K$ K: k' x
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