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比特币减半、比特币ETF获批、美联储降息这三件事被越来越多人/ v& C9 R2 e1 C& b2 Z) K: S
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认为推动加密牛市的发动机。毫无疑问，比特币正在进入宏观金融世界，
7 i; e- N" w5 f
0 ^0 _! i& b6 a而传统金融大门向比特币彻底打开，迎接比特币的则是继承上一代财富
6 @& k* S; P0 T$ v! w! X+ m
1 ~/ ~: r* ~( D. X$ u! t) c的千禧一代。! y- F. H! s' j
从比特币减半周期维度看，目前比特币确实已经进入新阶段。根据PlanB1 R& s) ?) T, p( R2 D% C# V: Q
, ^- i& ~1 n6 i2 [
的S2F模型看，目前，比特币已经进入”减半前 6 个月 – 减半后 18 个月“. f$ U* Y: n3 }; A5 ~
7 c% Q$ @8 ^: s9 o7 {4 @3 g
时期，在这个阶段，买入并持有的收益很好。除了比特币减半临近，加
: }4 @9 |$ _7 W/ d5 P9 N4 H# o' e+ V. P# v. i% U7 T6 i
密资产监管合规之路出现重要转折点，比特币ETF推出似也呼之欲出。据3 X9 R" C# O/ Y9 a
9 o: @* U0 t! y# |( C4 X4 E《比推》报道，2023年8月，法庭文件显示，华盛顿一个由三名法官组成( G3 r3 q. W0 }3 c3 l8 p+ y C M9 ?
; p+ a7 p( b" v* B
的上诉小组推翻了美国证交会（SEC）阻止灰度 ETF 的决定。据《比推》6 X b6 p1 G- p" j0 ^" Z' B0 d2 K' k
/ [3 W% x% ^/ i5 x8 m6 h
报道，在Ripple案中，10 月 3 日，法官Torres 驳回了 SEC的上诉请求；
* q7 t7 _$ a% Z9 [7 K
9 k" x; r8 X" }1 k0 x% u' C; m10月19日，灰度在X平台发文表示已提交了S-3表格，作为将GBTC转换为3 l* `7 l3 W7 y" r9 q
! v8 E& y5 v$ ?" sETF的努力的一部分。” 从近期美联储谈话看，美联储降息也基本确定。
/ X$ x H4 W9 o- S5 l# C$ n- Q. S
据《比推》报道，美联储主席鲍威尔近日在新闻发布会上明确表达：降
5 J+ ?: x& l5 J
- \: {( Q1 k9 @, n息已经进入决策视野，决策者正在思考、讨论合适降息合适。$ G! |$ t1 `. N( e
$ z* {$ N6 E' E. X) W- z; A: l/ }+ ]
与巨大利好预期相对应的则是，千禧一代一边继承财富，一边拥抱加密
, I8 V! A6 C: @3 H( G, e8 \$ A2 V: o, S% ^
世界。据Galaxy研报显示：千禧一代即将迎来有史以来最大规模的财富- O9 M. y( r$ o' H( v
( g7 v3 v1 i- X. ]8 m$ J6 E
传承。尽管婴儿潮一代和更年长的一代只占美国成年人口的三分之一不. c" }# ?0 _4 a6 A4 X& D
; Y( `4 M' _ M9 K* [
到，但却共同拥有美国家庭财富的三分之二（96 万亿美元），是千禧一
' u0 J9 K: Z3 v
* f5 c8 f$ j' o( r- {0 N/ s代及更年轻一代财富的 11 倍以上。受到多次经济衰退、高昂的住房成% X+ h3 K( i: K: i6 F8 o% M
8 T/ Z* T$ u3 L! L% X8 z
本和沉重的债务负担的影响，这些年轻一代更愿意接受替代性的金融体9 ^/ I( u2 f3 e% P$ Y
* a/ e% w9 F% ?" i系和投资，包括加密货币。许多调查显示，这一代相较父辈，对加密货
) \) |: R0 q2 y. O
' s" v. I, s6 {. ]' ^币的采用或接受率至少高出 3 倍。估算表明，财富转移的影响可能导致
* ]2 m* ~$ ^) Y; @. \5 L: U- a, [) O7 u z( c9 ] ^
未来 20 年内加密市场每天增加 2000 万至 2800 万美元的购买力。财富4 k) G3 c$ i/ q7 u6 B
2 C) y B% k0 `5 P; n+ W
/权力向年轻一代的人口结构转变是不可避免的，这对加密货币是个好兆头。
, p* f, ^4 G7 k# E4 U% W- y& _7 ]. R$ J' t" F9 [3 w/ h3 i
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