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[lastpost] => 2803761 现在是加密货币寒冬吗？监管改革后的市场转变（转） 1770376588 舞出精彩
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美股波动性罕见超越新兴市场和比特币，同时一向被视为安全资产的美债剧烈波动，这让投资者开始质疑持有美国资产的明智性。
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瑞银认为，一旦全球无风险利率出现波动，意味着所有市场都将被颠覆。分析师Ed Al-Hussainy更是一针见血地指出：“我其实不担心8 x: U- o% } u, F
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衰退，我担心的是金融危机。”
, f- g( Q: `0 ?( C9 w7 h9 H# U% H美股周五重回涨势，看上去市场风险偏好情绪恢复，但实际上投资者已经开始质疑美国资产的安全性，尤其是美债的剧烈波动，让金# V( R! W/ K( [
0 f% M4 t0 j- d融危机的恐惧再次笼罩华尔街。5 Q2 Q* |0 ^, j( d4 v. p7 d. q- c
) |, i7 l0 H7 G9 c% r+ r! R6 @过去一周，美国10年期国债收益率创下20多年来最大单周跳升，美股则跳水后又暴涨。表面上看，标普500指数周涨超5%，美债收益5 U& w) W6 M9 [: s& |! h
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率回到2月水平，比特币收盘走高，似乎一切如常。
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: L( I$ _$ q& D" u( Y然而令人不安的是，本周美股、美债和美元同时下跌的现象，正是典型的新兴市场特征，而非全球最安全资产的表现。尤其本周美国
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长债出现如此大的波动，流动性危机似乎就在眼前，这让投资者开始质疑持有美国资产的明智性。瑞银集团首席策略师巴努·巴韦贾更
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是表示：
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9 C* X" v. I8 [5 a C这太可怕了。我们正在重新定义全球无风险利率，如果全球无风险利率出现波动，它将颠覆所有市场。4 K+ ]6 g( x. V/ }8 q! k3 U
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历史罕见，美国资产波动性超越新兴市场和比特币+ r/ _: F$ z3 d9 o6 g8 B0 i
% n, @! b$ f5 V特朗普最近的关税政策不仅损害了对美国经济的信心，也动摇了投资者对美国政策方向和美元资产的信任。即使以华尔街漫长的历史
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标准来看，本周都是一个惨烈的交易周，美股像是坐上了过山车，美债美元的走势更是暗示美国避险地位似乎不保了：- [. o a8 ~, H! d
2 g6 G, |8 k% J; A8 Y周一，因所谓的乌龙关税消息，美股上演15分钟脉冲式巨震，纳指一度低位暴拉10%，美债跳水。0 X( G# ]7 J6 ?" T- v* y0 T
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周二，不会关税豁免的消息粉碎美股反弹希望，道指盘中高位狂泻超2000点，标普抹平超4%涨幅转跌，美国国债市场则出现去杠杆式大跌。3 F; `# G$ ~6 u( G
( h _8 O- }! M% c周三，美国暂缓部分关税，三大美股指至少收涨近8%，标普创2008年来最大涨幅，美股交易量创下300亿股的历史新高。十年期美债
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收益率冲高回落。7 K; o) o- `; j! |$ u! ?
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周四，全球投资者逃离美国资产，美国股债汇三杀，纳指跌超4%，美元两年来最大日跌，黄金新高。
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4 S8 P7 m( Y$ t0 p) T6 \周五，美联储暗示或出手，美股反弹收涨，但美债美元的跌势，警示着美国避险天堂的地位似乎不保了。0 ]! q9 J0 R+ c3 f. ^
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Loomis, Sayles & Company的投资经理Andrea DiCenso表示："美国市场是否开始表现得像新兴市场？毫无疑问，
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是的，这正是我们所看到的。"
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7 v2 a! J' S* N. y+ R1 A, g C根据数据显示，美股ETF的波动性甚至超过了追踪新兴市场的基金，也一度高于比特币。这种情况除了疫情、去: y) t, {$ E8 x
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年8月危机和美联储激进加息时期外，几乎从未出现。
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1 P2 c- t& e' |( sRenaissance Capital的Neil Dutta在给客户的邮件中直言："标普500指数像加密货币一样交易，这可能不是好事。". _+ B; x- H" w+ |/ L9 F& j
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其实如果以价格行为来看的话就是提前做了超大回调，但是会不会转趋势就另外说了 |
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