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[lastpost] => 2804717 黑天鹅原来是它:本轮比特币暴跌的真正原因(转) 1770556787 jackcool1011
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[虚拟币交流]
随着山寨币投机行为加剧,比特币的主导地位跌至 60% 以下(转)
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比特币在加密货币市场的主导地位急剧下滑,跌至59.2%,并跌破多个关键技术水平。此次下跌可能是一个重要的转折点,预示着期待已久的山寨币涨势即将开启。
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仅在过去的一个月里,由于以太坊和其他山寨币都取得了显著的增长,比特币的市场份额就从 63.9% 下降。
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我们是如何到达这里的。这次崩盘标志着一场重大市场战的结束。以下是我们对前期的分析.
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X, L( i2 I) D4 M# m技术水平面临压力
- |/ u8 r$ Q. Z e8 DDan Gambardello 表示,比特币的主导地位近期跌破了 60% 的心理关口,并跌破了绿色移动平均线的支撑位。目前,它正在测试 59% 附近的蓝色移动平均线。3 X) ^0 v& v/ X3 u& ]/ N$ C
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上一次出现这种情况是在2024年11月,当时山寨币曾短暂上涨,随后比特币重新占据主导地位。此次下跌之前,市场经历了数月59%至66%的盘整。持续的跌破可能会促使大量资金转向山寨币。- I$ o; G' g& q% c7 J5 j; e
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分析师 AltcoinGordon 进一步指出,比特币的主导地位正在下降,他指出,比特币已经跌破了近 62% 的三年上涨趋势线,这是一个关键的结构性转变。他认为,自 2022 年以来,这一水平一直抑制着山寨币的走势,跌破这一水平可能会引发整个市场更广泛的参与。1 E7 U H# V; d& p1 |
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这又是一次“假动作”吗?/ O+ k6 A( M# T" x
谨慎仍需谨慎。分析师 ZYN 指出,尽管历史经验表明,假突破是可能的,但目前的情况表明,比特币的主导地位可能已经达到顶峰。
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! t7 i0 x- u' E! v2024 年第四季度,比特币短暂占据主导地位滑落至突破EMA-50水平后迅速反弹。ZYN指出,尽管历史经验表明,假突破是可能的,但目前的情况表明,比特币的主导地位可能已经达到顶峰。8 K- z% @+ e" f P5 U
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他认为,如果周收盘价低于关键的EMA-50移动平均线,可能确认市场将出现更具决定性的走势,并为“超级山寨币季”奠定基础。交易员将密切关注周收盘价,以区分真正的崩盘和又一次错误的开局。
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5 E, G$ L2 i# [市场份额正在发生变化
7 t2 H B0 U9 W) \) y其影响已在数据中显现。以太坊的市场份额已从上个月的 9.7% 上升至今天的 12.9%,增长了超过三个百分点。其他加密货币的市场份额也已上升至 27.9%,这表明山寨币正在被广泛追捧。这种转变不仅是技术层面的,也是心理层面的,因为投资者的兴趣似乎正在超越比特币和以太坊。( R5 ^& U' |' k0 P$ T4 S ]
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值得注意的是,比特币的主导地位在今年6月底达到峰值65.1%,这使得当前的下跌既迅速又引人注目。如果这种下跌趋势持续下去,可能标志着自2022年以来最重要的主导地位逆转之一,重塑市场领导地位,并可能加速山寨币的增长。% l4 y/ R, _6 @& }5 O1 F
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感觉山寨币要热闹起来了,比特币得让个位子了。9 a- K/ B ^. A, m
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