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[虚拟币交流]
比特币下跌，黄金触顶——但 Uptober 尚未结束（转）
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今年十月已经测试了比特币的[BTC]信徒。在通常被称为“Uptober”的月份过半时，BTC 发现自己处于陌生的境地，遭遇了历史上最糟糕的月中表现之一。" n) w% r3 x! o$ L/ C' L
, H2 |- p( Z" r- f0 q0 @/ [7 b4 \但你看不到的是，比特币收盘上涨的可能性仍然很大，罕见的BTC-黄金图表细节也表明可能已经触底。
/ W$ y! D. X" o' T6 g2 d+ e( a( I4 B; ? u! J
Uptober 能否如期实现目标，还是说这将是它的终结？; [" z2 z3 [+ G
' }$ t8 f6 F4 S4 B5 y" P: P2 K开局艰难，但历史看好牛市' P+ e( J9 [8 z6 b5 t" C
2025 年 10 月已经赢得了比特币十月份表现为有记录以来第二糟糕。对于通常看涨的月份来说，这是一个令人惊讶的转折。
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# d/ T2 D/ ^: e来源：Alphractal3 ?9 ?# Q7 N4 T4 `$ L) d
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15年来，只有四个10月份收盘下跌。但鉴于比特币最终上涨的可能性高达73%，胜算仍然对比特币有利。/ t; z# G7 O9 G& u5 D" p
& N& f' [* e7 @4 Y/ Y尽管开局不稳，但许多人相信本月结束前可能会转为看涨，保持这种势头。) l% X' s3 E* C( c/ P: x
/ |$ S/ g! O7 ^! Y7 [事情变得有趣了
# p$ G; o7 K. t3 O% bBTC/黄金比率中罕见的信号表明形势可能很快就会发生转变。
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0 Y, g. m- X9 i+ h来源：X
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5 h. ]0 y* c2 _% J" I' M根据最近的数据，该比率已达到迄今为止仅在主要市场底部出现的水平，而这些时刻往往是从黄金转向比特币的最佳时机。
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7 r( w& i! p! a3 v7 J; D& t1 qBTC/黄金震荡指标徘徊在-1.8左右，从历史上看，这与BTC开始跑赢黄金的周期低点相关。
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正如 Alphractal 首席执行官 Joao Wedson 所说，该图表“基本上是在大声疾呼”现在是“出售黄金、购买比特币的时候了”。- N" \# H! |% Z8 `' h
& Q, }3 G3 W. J' o. `8 B4 w/ W随着黄金价格处于高位，而比特币出现触底信号，风险回报方程现在可能更倾向于加密货币，而不是传统的避风港。$ j- n9 e/ `2 u6 Z [2 I2 }+ B
/ L& n4 ]5 O5 ?, }; _6 }5 T9 a2 T空头在 10.7 万美元附近失去动力5 T# @. p* p' x8 ^! G
经过几天的持续抛售，截至发稿时，比特币似乎稳定在 107,000 美元左右。
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来源：TradingView
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日线图显示看跌势头减弱，RSI 指标显示 BTC 处于超卖区域。与此同时，MACD 图柱趋于平缓；如果买盘活跃，则可能出现动能逆转。) h0 ^5 U: Z) o
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然而，BTC 的交易价格仍然低于关键 EMA（20、50、100），整体趋势仍看跌。
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突破 110,000 美元的决定性举措可能确认复苏，但在此之前，有点乐观永远不会伤害任何人。
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这波跌得挺狠，但老韭菜都懂，Uptober还没完呢 |
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十月才过一半别急着下结论，比特币这货向来爱搞幺蛾子 |
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