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[lastpost] => 2801361 代币创建平台 Doppler 完成由 Pantera Capital 领投的 900 万美元种子轮融资（转） 1769684578 舞出精彩
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[虚拟币交流]
比特币一度冲破3万美元！现货ETF、触底的波动率唤醒上涨攻势？（转载）
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比特币(BTC)在7月中旬上冲至31,800美元高点，创下去年5月以来的新高后，就开始不' Q; q6 {5 _& t6 w8 y
断阴跌，甚至多次跌破2.8万美元。 C, {, n3 ]' \/ }/ ?
但昨日开始，比特币价格似乎又再次扭转颓势，突破盘整区间从29,000美元附近一举上攻，一度在今晨站上
6 D" v2 H) G- \ l30,000美元大关，截稿前略有下滑暂报29,862美元。( m J0 w6 ?/ m; d' i2 U+ i- h/ v
波动率历史低点，爆发到来？
% w1 U% z0 Q9 L( ~# ` R- B近期，研究机构K33 Research发布一份最新比特币研报，指出比特币当前5日波动率已低于传统证券、甚至是黄. ]! L t! R' I* K: m, T
金，K33分析师认为比特币正处于「火山爆发」前夕。(历史中同样情况时，上涨的机率比下跌高一些)* }: c" i$ T& F1 h
从Coinglass数据可以看到，近期比特币价格的波动率大概落在1.3%左右，这个水平是自从2020年牛市启动前的
5 F9 {( Z# {- W, c% K$ Z: t+ f低点。
4 L0 y8 K, w/ D# c8 x+ `5 r全球经济将迈入升息周期尾声
0 h: H& X, _6 s# o$ z V6 t另一方面，上周五(4)美国劳工部公布了非农就业报告，非农就业的增加人数创下了2020年12月以来最低纪录，突5 s, H* Q! r; [% S: \6 N
显了经济降温的迹象，并预计将缓解联准会在下次会议上升息的压力。6 O# z5 V$ d! K' O
目前芝商所的FedWatch数据也显示，市场预测联准会在下次利率会议上维持在现行利率区间5.25%~5.50%的机3 W0 B, V& U7 ^5 N- J$ m' R! B
率高达86.5%，本波升息循环可以将正式结束。
! t+ I" t6 t$ C美国多间银行也对外表示全球升息周期有可能落幕，据财富周五报导，亚特兰大联邦准备银行行长Raphael& X4 J m7 u: y* s3 u
Bostic公开表明他认为没有必要进一步加息。
4 w7 ^/ L! T( |7 p“我预计经济将以相当有序的方式放缓，而7月份的非农就业数据-18.7万人的增幅-将继续这一步伐，我预计这种
& R. F9 t" Z: c! i) p! o) B情况不会在短时间内结束。”
/ q$ B8 y1 d4 g6 V$ i+ ~5 Y纽约联准银行总裁威廉斯(John Williams)也在近期接受纽约时报专访指出，未来的通膨如果如外界预期般持续下1 n7 z6 y/ l/ K7 I8 x; |
降，他认为联准会(Fed)不排除明年甚至可能开始降息，但一切有待更多数据公布。0 ^; Z) a' m7 O- u% k+ e* j* g9 Z' H
比特币ETF即将通过？
0 k+ e9 z6 `; l h/ v! ?另外一个可能会大举推动比特币上涨的原因还有一个，由多家华尔街巨头推动的比特币现货ETF。据Bloomberg
; m6 @! ~" I+ S7 g4 b资深ETF分析师Eric Balchunas昨晚最新贴文，他表示：Galaxy执行长Mike Novogratz在今早的财报电话会议上
! u% s- U: q2 w3 d( [: V% n4 v表示，据贝莱德和景顺投信内部的联系人透露，比特币现货ETF的批准可能会在四到六个月内，而不是「是否」的
. m7 `+ O3 b2 J5 q问题。3 Z" r: T* [' w& ^' E+ x
似乎有很大的自信判断市场即将迎来现货ETF。" d! n7 S- v3 F. s& Q% p! r# Q
l; |$ w3 b0 v7 S6 _5 h
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