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[lastpost] => 2800754 比特币下跌,加密货币股票承压,投资者加倍押注—这意味着什么?(转) 1769479354 jackcool1011
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[虚拟币交流]
2.67 的比特币价格温度将如何影响 BTC 的未来?(转)
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比特币价格温度升至2.64点,接近过热区域。5 a" p, {% ^% n
尽管BPT上涨,但比特币在回调前仍有较大的上涨空间。
# e# H" l) d& \过去一个月里,比特币[BTC]已飙升 17.94%,从 8.3 万美元的低点上涨至 11.1 万美元。尽管近期涨势令人欣喜,但一些利益相关者对潜在的过热现象表示担忧。
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其中一位是 CryptoQuant 分析师阿克塞尔·阿德勒他曾警告称,比特币正接近过热区域。6 G/ z$ ^' G: i8 o, e3 G
3 B0 g4 O3 ?! \* y7 {! PAdler 在分析中观察到,比特币的价格温度已升至 2.67 点,这表明这枚王者币正接近潜在的过热区域。他补充道:) D/ z0 x! }* j
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“本周期的前两个峰值是 BPT 达到 2.75 和 3.57。”8 {- E! O! l. `% M
. Q2 }. z8 u' ]7 }/ m平均而言,如果 BPT 达到 3.14,BTC 温度就已进入过热区域。目前,市场距离完全过热区域仍有 0.47 个点。
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因此,BTC 尚未达到之前的最高水平,在达到过热水平之前仍有一定的上涨空间。
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BTC 图表暗示了什么2 H- Y% y: Y m4 p
虽然上述分析提供了乐观的前景,但必须再三核实并确定其他图表所表明的内容。
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, [8 t& T9 k: \; C( q; q+ S首先,看看比特币的MVRV,截至发稿时约为2.4。过去一个月,它一直在2.13和2.41左右徘徊。这些水平通常与健康的市场相关。, Z* W+ E z7 c2 L2 J6 M" I
$ m; ?1 G# R8 M从历史上看,当 MVRV 超过 3.0 时,比特币就进入过热阶段,长期持有者开始抛售。目前 MVRV 仍低于 2.5 和 3.0,表明 BTC 仍有上涨空间。1 T8 n9 J, j" g# G6 ?& W
$ e. C) @+ r3 t4 J比特币的NUPL进一步证实了这一点。截至本文撰写时,NUPL处于58%或0.58,这是一个信念/否定区间。因此,由于NUPL尚未达到0.75,BTC尚未过热。
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$ C- U4 ]: D- F6 J; z2 c当 NUPL 进入极度兴奋区时,就会导致获利回吐,因为持有者开始担心潜在的调整。+ b, N. j9 w6 H" s" T# \0 R
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最后,从比特币的 Pi 周期顶部来看,BTC 远未过热。值得注意的是,当 111 日移动平均线 (SMA) 突破 2 倍 350 日移动平均线时,BTC 便进入过热区域。这种情况在过去四年中从未发生过。; V. H6 G/ s K4 h" a2 d2 ?
/ |# P% G7 \/ Q, L最后一次交叉记录于 2021 年。: N1 J1 s, r+ O: X
, L/ T5 s! ?- ?) J) V# V截至发稿时,350 x2 SMA 位于 16 万美元左右,而 111 DSMA 位于 9.1 万美元。因此,在两条线交汇之前,仍有进一步上涨的空间。
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: X# M. }; Q- b6 L" g! V简而言之,尽管比特币的价格已飙升至接近过热的水平,但仍有上涨空间。此外,其他市场指标也表明,BTC 可能会继续上涨。
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如果当前的上涨趋势持续下去,BTC 价格可能触及 12 万美元。然而,如果部分持有者转向获利了结,BTC 价格可能回落至 10.6 万美元。& L( R8 H! o& f$ p0 \* G
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