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[虚拟币交流]
比特币下跌，黄金触顶——但 Uptober 尚未结束（转）
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今年十月已经测试了比特币的[BTC]信徒。在通常被称为“Uptober”的月份过半时，BTC 发现自己处于陌生的境地，遭遇了历史上最糟糕的月中表现之一。
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; N) F1 S \1 ]/ \/ |' L. ]但你看不到的是，比特币收盘上涨的可能性仍然很大，罕见的BTC-黄金图表细节也表明可能已经触底。' E# M( ^' S% X6 j- V
5 Z7 n Y6 A3 |( j' t& sUptober 能否如期实现目标，还是说这将是它的终结？
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开局艰难，但历史看好牛市
8 ]' ^; V/ V2 t T- @9 Y2025 年 10 月已经赢得了比特币十月份表现为有记录以来第二糟糕。对于通常看涨的月份来说，这是一个令人惊讶的转折。 S/ x( i4 O& k
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来源：Alphractal
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15年来，只有四个10月份收盘下跌。但鉴于比特币最终上涨的可能性高达73%，胜算仍然对比特币有利。. ^9 K/ i) O2 _! B
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尽管开局不稳，但许多人相信本月结束前可能会转为看涨，保持这种势头。6 R. w( A; P7 E) e0 R* U
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事情变得有趣了
2 R3 K* n! L. j7 H9 ?/ IBTC/黄金比率中罕见的信号表明形势可能很快就会发生转变。0 d# C* h: r3 {# S% \" t
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来源：X
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v; v" y$ i, t; I3 H V根据最近的数据，该比率已达到迄今为止仅在主要市场底部出现的水平，而这些时刻往往是从黄金转向比特币的最佳时机。2 F ?3 J* j1 l- m2 H, S1 Z( Z
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BTC/黄金震荡指标徘徊在-1.8左右，从历史上看，这与BTC开始跑赢黄金的周期低点相关。2 e8 k1 n3 U" I. Y
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正如 Alphractal 首席执行官 Joao Wedson 所说，该图表“基本上是在大声疾呼”现在是“出售黄金、购买比特币的时候了”。
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随着黄金价格处于高位，而比特币出现触底信号，风险回报方程现在可能更倾向于加密货币，而不是传统的避风港。
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空头在 10.7 万美元附近失去动力
! t2 D1 ? w6 i6 I经过几天的持续抛售，截至发稿时，比特币似乎稳定在 107,000 美元左右。
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来源：TradingView3 S! n! f/ g: D# A- {
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日线图显示看跌势头减弱，RSI 指标显示 BTC 处于超卖区域。与此同时，MACD 图柱趋于平缓；如果买盘活跃，则可能出现动能逆转。
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- W* a% J( B- g' s4 C0 f" X5 ]3 n然而，BTC 的交易价格仍然低于关键 EMA（20、50、100），整体趋势仍看跌。
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突破 110,000 美元的决定性举措可能确认复苏，但在此之前，有点乐观永远不会伤害任何人。
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十月才过一半别急着下结论，比特币这货向来爱搞幺蛾子 |
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这波跌得挺狠，但老韭菜都懂，Uptober还没完呢 |
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