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[lastpost] => 2784957 比特币反弹逼近 92,000 美元——市场反应的原因如下（转） 1764235229 人生如赌
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[虚拟币交流]
分析师：比特币价格可能在2022年跌至1.4万美元，但现在“买入是最好的选择”
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研究称，比特币今年将面临“周期底部”，可能会从目前的水平下跌超过50%。
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在6月1日的一篇推特帖子中，链上分析平台CryptoQuant的撰稿人Venturefounder预测，2022年是比特币“投降”的一年。
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比特币现在拥有“有史以来最好的3年投资回报率”
% E) ]* P- k; c$ Q* a; B) OVenturefounder写道，根据比特币减半周期的历史模式，今年应该是当前四年周期中的熊市害群之马。
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: X( b k9 q' X就像2018年和它的熊市一样，BTC/USD应该会在2022年的某个时候找到自己的宏观底部，如果计算以前从历史高点的跌幅，这可能在14000美元到21000美元之间。' G4 h; u9 t; y+ f$ |2 z
, U. c. j8 E# z! x“距离比特币下一次减半还有670天，与过去的周期相比，我们按时看到了比特币的表现，”一条推文解释道：) g6 t: e( `6 |" ^# C
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“在接下来的670天里，BTC将在接下来的6个月里投降，并触及周期底部(14-21k美元)，然后在2023年的大部分时间里达到2.8 -40k美元，并在下一次减半之前再次达到~40k美元。”3 T7 X5 L* m+ K5 m
$ q9 }5 z3 s, w i% H" f& n这样的预测虽然不是什么好消息，但也不是没有先例的。在2018年12月触及3100美元后，比特币在7个月后设法回到13800美元，然后再次逆转下行，在2020年3月的低点3600美元见底。; ^& D4 A" U* Z0 Q. h- ?
7 p1 ?8 o* D8 I8 R即使是2019年的最高价格也不足以打破2017年12月创下的历史最高纪录——20000美元。3 R' S6 T% C& w6 c: Y
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Venturefounder认为，这一水平可能再次成为现货价格图表的一个特征。尽管如此，那些愿意乘势投资的人(即便是现在)还是会站在历史正确的一边。
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“换句话说，从现在到未来6-12个月，购买比特币是最好的选择。这可能是有史以来最好的3年投资回报率，”他补充道：
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5 v: g, @( J7 a7 h O“我们可能没有在周期底部，但我们在BTC周期底部的范围内。这是你在把握市场周期时能做的最好的事情。”
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T8 h; X) h6 l- h! Z |( M底部预测不断出现0 w5 i1 U8 ~9 z5 r" {4 A5 i
与此同时，其他人已经估计可能的底部范围在14000美元或附近。4 h t6 G1 Z3 r4 p. i
2 d% I; ?) a! m! t5 `这一价格将比目前的历史高点69000美元下跌约80%。
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# j6 V' O4 i: q" U! M, O链上分析公司Glassnode的数据显示，目前31000美元左右的价格相对来说是一个较小的降幅。/ D( a Q& D/ Q" ^- f
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2 \: K; A9 f v0 u+ n" d' QBTC/USD从历史高点回落 来源：Glassnode, `! V% k8 ^" |" S$ _
) D& f+ G* u3 I! O9 Y* @- M0 l上月，同行分析师Rekt Capital估计，一旦BTC/USD跌破200周移动平均线，其潜在目标价为15500美元。2 X6 z0 D+ E$ x& o. x. a
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卖家要将市场推低到如此之低可能会遇到困难。持有最多比特币的上市公司MicroStrategy承诺，只要比特币价格接近20000美元大关，它就买入。$ A" L' N/ x: G, Y. y4 g. h- K3 p
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交易巨头BitMEX前首席执行官Arthur Hayes也证实，他对20000美元的比特币感兴趣。9 d; w% j6 z; M; i) g/ g
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