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美联储前三把手杜德利表示，美联储可能在50基点和100基点之间选择一个折中点，因此，此次加息75个基点的可能性更大。 ) K& d# Y6 l5 B5 P- I* o& X
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持续受恐慌情绪影响，隔夜美股收盘，标普500指数连续两日收于熊市区间，和道琼斯指数均连跌五日。三大指数中，只有纳指小幅收涨，暂别近两年低谷。
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( [4 B5 R8 N, r在上周五公布的通胀数据意外上行并创四十年新高之后，市场普遍预计美联储将更加激进地加息。 $ v- R& ^' ^! E- B0 m
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目前，美联储将在本周的利率决议上加息75个基点逐渐成为华尔街的共识，其中包括巴克莱、摩根大通、高盛等大型投行。 8 ^6 H4 {0 M* s* C$ c6 o- p
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据芝加哥商品交易所（CME）的美联储观察工具，从6月10日至13日，美联储本周加息75个基点的可能性已从23.2%上升至95.5%。
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& R4 N9 x" F4 ^' c& M/ l) g6 r. H* v$ J6 K摩根大通经济学家Michael Feroli和渣打银行全球外汇研究和北美宏观策略负责人Steven Englander甚至认为美联储本次可能加息100个基点。 $ k. g" O; p6 t7 l8 D
' j, D# W2 J" v7 a, h/ P5 ^) D值得一提的是，美联储前三把手、前纽约联储主席威廉·杜德利也做出类似的预测。 + |" s, X# r; J4 D( V9 N' A
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“我的感觉是，美联储已经决定加息75个基点而非50个基点，因为过去一周的数据显示通胀上升，而且可能会有一些关于通胀预期的更令人不安的消息。”
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此外，杜德利表示，美联储完全可以基于同样的理由在本次的利率决议中加息100个基点，因为： % I0 Q1 q/ v- v4 [. k* ?
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“如果你认为速度和最终达到的水平一样重要，那为什么不快点到达呢？”
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5 A" l. }8 m8 g& ], e' D2 K2 L0 q; \根据杜德利的说法，美联储可能在50基点和100基点之间选择一个折中点，因此，此次加息75个基点的可能性更大。 1 a8 [: F) z# y& J" L$ A! e& r
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如果华尔街的共识变成现实，这将是美联储自1994年以来首次一次性加息75个基点。 4 \1 ^: y8 @) y( D* {, O' [4 h; C
; y5 N- n! V3 r" X1 Z按照美联储在加息周期开始时的说法，美联储的目标是尽可能快地让利率回到中性水平。但在5月的储例行新闻发布会上，鲍威尔改变了这种以中性利率为目标的态度，明确表示加到中性利率后再定加息终点。他表示要继续加息，直到有“明确和令人信服”的证据表明通胀正在放缓。
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另外，鲍威尔在5月的例行新闻发布会上表示，未来两次会议可能加息50个基点，暂排除75个基点加息。但有分析表示，加息50个基点可能会给金融市场带来更大的混乱。 |
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