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[lastpost] => 2784858 分析师警告——比特币不太可能在2025年出现“圣诞行情”（转） 1768646627 g9527
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硬币的两面是运气和风险。! S; ]$ c, [ U* _
运气和风险都是长尾事件，或者是个人投资者无法控制的不可预见的事件，对回报影响很大。& l: }+ o( Q8 h7 K7 }( l7 {
9 o9 }) p* b' I8 t- o1 B2 j
4 ~. P4 X. [' J# T9 l聪明的投资者非常注重降低风险，并会分散和/或对冲他们的投资组合。
# {# m% h' E. j R! G8 ~2 T. {: z) h, O, |7 M( T
% l0 ?- X: n6 d, q然而，运气也会对回报产生同样的影响。世界上最成功的人非常幸运，在正确的时间出现在正确的地方。2 w6 d' C8 G' X
0 G, d8 k8 t7 f; X
6 S/ ~) p. b7 r/ Q/ S/ S$ N例如，比尔•盖茨认为，如果他不在高中学习计算机知识，他就不会创造微软。
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% o* ~+ ~; f) y4 Q- d+ `( I4 r# v6 b0 J# b1 w+ b" ~
这些随机的运气往往会扭曲投资者的认知，使他们更倾向于幸存者偏差，导致他们试图复制那些真正不可复制的成功。
6 w1 @( Z7 f% b1 i1 i% d3 b6 i! J" L' l S) ^4 w
: M# O1 O9 q2 B5 l, I
为了缓解这种情况，Morgan建议投资者尝试以他们真正能模仿的人或品质为例。- @. ^* i4 W5 J2 C1 w; Q
( B& t3 o1 K1 r. ~& C/ P; n0 d6 D, F( U+ h9 A2 g2 v
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: t6 w( @( X; ~% n" C5 a每个人的看法就不一样吧 |
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* h% n: S! F0 `
也是的呀，所以没运气的人注定不好 |
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% \! A+ ~8 Y1 }1 \0 y9 H( x- E8 W你这形容得很有道理 |
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