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[lastpost] => 2797547 美国银行首席执行官：计息稳定币可能使银行存款减少6万亿美元（转） 1768491979 小钱儿
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比特币减半、比特币ETF获批、美联储降息这三件事被越来越多人
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认为推动加密牛市的发动机。毫无疑问，比特币正在进入宏观金融世界，
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而传统金融大门向比特币彻底打开，迎接比特币的则是继承上一代财富" D! D. B; G! D
: X: K5 Y2 n$ s) j& f$ p% B的千禧一代。
$ @2 [- k6 E. D( C3 I从比特币减半周期维度看，目前比特币确实已经进入新阶段。根据PlanB' B7 {; g; P q; P; s
7 h/ F8 D( S! K- @& v7 ]3 ?的S2F模型看，目前，比特币已经进入”减半前 6 个月 – 减半后 18 个月“& S$ g8 x4 u9 r0 ~
. G5 g( }1 ~; O6 G; L 时期，在这个阶段，买入并持有的收益很好。除了比特币减半临近，加
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密资产监管合规之路出现重要转折点，比特币ETF推出似也呼之欲出。据! F0 `' o. G3 f! j8 r B* H
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《比推》报道，2023年8月，法庭文件显示，华盛顿一个由三名法官组成, o$ a8 O# g1 P q/ D) K) k
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的上诉小组推翻了美国证交会（SEC）阻止灰度 ETF 的决定。据《比推》
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t4 i2 f+ W! ]4 s6 j报道，在Ripple案中，10 月 3 日，法官Torres 驳回了 SEC的上诉请求；7 R4 J, {/ u* X @9 Q; Y. k3 c
' J) a& M, t( a+ ~10月19日，灰度在X平台发文表示已提交了S-3表格，作为将GBTC转换为
: [2 W& n+ E/ G. e* }4 k8 \" _! Z3 L6 w' L& {: {
ETF的努力的一部分。” 从近期美联储谈话看，美联储降息也基本确定。2 J: J2 a5 C {9 d9 W. e
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据《比推》报道，美联储主席鲍威尔近日在新闻发布会上明确表达：降
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息已经进入决策视野，决策者正在思考、讨论合适降息合适。
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( @" }0 h0 l0 G8 P1 K8 Y* C与巨大利好预期相对应的则是，千禧一代一边继承财富，一边拥抱加密: O4 _( ~1 S4 i6 R2 W. }
4 K" X5 D1 `) s3 q" |世界。据Galaxy研报显示：千禧一代即将迎来有史以来最大规模的财富3 i+ p6 V) K V. h, x( V, A
e7 x4 ?5 l: E8 }( V% ]1 s传承。尽管婴儿潮一代和更年长的一代只占美国成年人口的三分之一不
3 K# h* {; ^9 @0 S7 |4 C
4 g/ P7 |# x8 e, [到，但却共同拥有美国家庭财富的三分之二（96 万亿美元），是千禧一# h1 s, D( B. E. _$ T; C9 Q$ O8 \
/ `( b( N. U: [0 {: P J代及更年轻一代财富的 11 倍以上。受到多次经济衰退、高昂的住房成
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( G. x6 }4 U' {( w. n: R. \本和沉重的债务负担的影响，这些年轻一代更愿意接受替代性的金融体
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系和投资，包括加密货币。许多调查显示，这一代相较父辈，对加密货
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3 X8 a2 ?! v! E( g# X5 i" }- D币的采用或接受率至少高出 3 倍。估算表明，财富转移的影响可能导致
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未来 20 年内加密市场每天增加 2000 万至 2800 万美元的购买力。财富
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* u" y: x! Y1 k0 P+ V/ ~/权力向年轻一代的人口结构转变是不可避免的，这对加密货币是个好兆头。
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