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昨天上车了 $CKB，浅谈一下对比特币L2赛道的一些粗浅认知：! M' g# @+ p C( D W6 i# F
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比特币L2的设计目标，不仅仅是解决铭文资产的流动性问题，也不仅仅是解锁比特币的链上流动性，而是通过增强比特币的可编程性激活比特币主网区块空间的商品属性和内在价值，为整个加密行业带来超越以太坊主网区块空间去信任性的新选择。
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为什么这么说呢？! m$ ]# z3 [% T# a0 N) ^
& `+ W+ V0 H( |6 Q5 d1 Q第一，铭文资产的MCAP总规模太小，无法作为众多比特币L2的价值支撑。
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8 \6 C. \5 E1 o0 J% n. N据Coingecko的数据统计，BRC20板块MCAP总规模有$28.08亿，加上Ordinals NFT的MCAP总规模有$13.5亿，整个铭文赛道MCAP总规模只有$41.58亿，仅仅相当于一个中等水平以太坊L2或者一个链抽象项目的FDV。6 V5 c+ h) C H
5 M0 g, X+ n, i4 }而头部BRC20资产的流动性集中在CEX，头部Ordinals NFT的资产的流动性集中在OKX NFT市场、Magic Eden和Unisat。- ]2 q: T$ S2 m5 Z2 h4 ?& b% z; c
% h- B" o2 ]6 X& N: [: G7 L这些头部项目对链上流动性的需求并没有想象的那么强烈，比如BRC20资产中的RATS，他们社区日思夜想的是上币安，而非跨链到某比特币L2获得DEX流动性。
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" [# F. s O8 G$ q其实与以太坊、Solana等图灵完备公链生态的情况一样，主要是长尾铭文资产需要AMM Swap。
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第二，比特币社区信仰“not your key，not your coin”，导致目前只有~10%的比特币供给量沉淀在CEX，4.22%沉淀在比特币现货ETF，绝大部分比例比特币呆在holder的冷钱包里。
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所以，无论是通过销毁BTC抽象经济安全性的比特币L2 Stacks，还是计划通过结合加密学方法和基于Taproot多签脚本控制金库实现Staking-Slash机制的Babylon，在以保守主义著称的比特币社区中都会遇到很大的阻力。. V& g9 P7 D; H1 o! ?4 n& S
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而且在比特币L2的概念出现之前，闪电网络已经很好地解决了比特币去信任互换问题。
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( }* N, ^# W* o+ H正如Pantera在投研报告中所说，铭文生态的爆发和增长，让市场意识到比特币可编程性的可能，在“数字黄金”的叙事之外，重新发现了“作为技术的比特币主网”。
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" [; L2 m( r c5 w9 s) d8 j所以，比特币L2的核心设计目标不是解锁流动性，而是实现比特币可编程性的文艺复兴。
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) G2 u3 [( |& M: F3 H而众多比特币L2的诞生，将使得比特币主网可以像以太坊主网那样，将区块空间出售给比特币L2。& ]5 m% m0 X T3 `
7 d+ s7 G% X7 @) ?* H2 O这样不但可以给第4次减产后的比特币矿工带来稳定且可持续的新增收入，而且比特币主网加入区块空间生产者的竞争，也有利于改变伴随以太坊主网一家独大而出现的地租经济化导致的开发者躺平摆烂收税食利现象。
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