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[lastpost] => 2649411 两个巨鲸钱包在休眠十年后转移价值6100万美元的BTC(转) 1715590398 不要脸最大
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当前离线
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比特币减半即将到来,距离减半仅剩约10天。面对即将到来的比特币减半,我们应该如何应对未来的行情呢?' j) C* z+ Z3 O/ [
* W' w8 S" p; G% `; {: d1 d* [8 {3 f8 w
# p- M$ c+ s0 a2 J
根据过去几次比特币减半的历史数据来看,通常比特币在减半后会先出现一波下跌,然后经过数月的盘整后,会迎来
: Q( X. ~7 z& X' V
* p5 _8 F0 n: D8 Z% Q. K上涨行情并创造新的历史高点。根据目前比特币的日线图观察,我们可以看到比特币价格目前正在进行三角盘整,意味著比
4 ?/ M1 o( v0 f5 o: P( d* x5 g& n
2 t9 b% M# n- Q- c4 g特币可能会迎来向上或向下的行情。, \) |* D" F$ b8 T! I/ ]
7 E* {: y4 c/ \* O6 P" Y- y3 L此外,我们还可以从MACD和牛市平均线中获取一些信息。目前MACD仍处于盘整阶段,而牛市平均线已达到51000 - 53000美元。/ c% l- x& v. f
" g7 E s. Z4 X, K5 z; q虽然比特币ETF的加持可能会使行情产生有所不同的变化,但我个人仍认为比特币可能会迎来一波回调阶段,然后在减半后进行盘2 j( v- v6 W" y! b* l! z4 _) K
( {2 F) U- G, [整,最终突破向上。, @4 i! b# g; X& L
, r$ s* O& @1 X6 ]2 h5 k 我认为比特币的OTC市场对此有著重大影响。比特币的产出一直源自于矿工,而他们一直在OTC市场向大型机构出售比特币。* f' V% u2 e- d2 s. k
8 p: V$ q% v' {$ l- Q最近的报告显示,随著比特币需求的增加和卖方流动性的下降,比特币的流动存量已经下降到历史最低水平。分析师估计,目前% |$ i/ ~1 W5 u& W1 ? r8 M' j$ V
9 Z5 S" S1 o! G2 Y9 y, W! o
比特币的卖方流动性库存只能满足未来6-12个月的需求增长。% t5 g) f. Q4 ]3 O/ {! B
2 F/ C3 O% z& P* @! N; v7 t根据以上信息,比特币的流动性库存只能满足未来6-12个月的需求增长,这意味著如果比特币的价格要大幅上涨,先决条件便是需
9 K4 h" {: I$ f2 E6 ]7 h, U
( L3 p; G' z! ?$ @- [+ A要清空所有的库存,才能导致比特币价格上涨。随著比特币ETF对比特币的需求不断增加,我认为6-12个月只是伴随著现有情况而作7 Q s; F* y7 x! v8 E5 g3 x
' o: x S6 x% f. q W. c8 o出的估算,因此我们除了关注比特币价格外,还应该关注比特币ETF的供求情况和表现。" e& C8 N& n4 ]: v! {8 J
+ N1 c0 L. r/ U7 S5 [综合以上信息,我认为比特币可能会像过去的行情一样,在减半后先迎来一波回调,然后等待OTC市场的比特币库存不足时,价格自
2 D! ?( b; }2 n3 [3 R1 G0 \4 U, W! n
然会上涨。届时,各大型机构将无法在任何OTC市场中购买比特币,可能会转而在现货市场进行购买,这可能会推动比特币价格上涨。
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当前离线
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当前离线
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