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[lastpost] => 2797542 债券市场平静支撑比特币上涨至六位数价格的前景(转) 1768753360 叫我十三
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随着价格的整合,比特币的需求已降至近几周的最低水平。然而,交易所比特币供应的减少使得价格大幅下跌成为可能。& N; F6 f5 ~$ G8 y5 B
自8月5日从下跌中恢复以来,比特币[BTC]的交易区间在56K-62K美元之间。4 ~+ |5 ]8 t" w' Y) Y& k7 h! y1 C
6 S* G5 u. z6 |5 \自8月8日以来,价格没有跌破或超过这一区间,这表明可能会出现盘整或市场不确定性。8 J& `3 _% \- Y7 Y) q1 \2 C
, a* f/ u7 @( j2 j' s% }1 c阻止该区域以上出现重大突破的因素之一是比特币需求增长疲软,根据CryptoQuant的数据,比特币需求仍处于较低水平。最近几周,这甚至变成了负面的。
0 A" }* f! G- y$ a2 o" d6 r @
1 {7 ]" H2 A$ E% D, O3 I5 N( K: k2024年4月,比特币的需求达到了三年来的峰值,恰逢比特币减半事件。然而,自那以后,它已降至今年的最低水平。. h h5 n* s: [; Y
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那么,为什么比特币的需求会下降呢?, X/ s' a2 f8 q% w/ _/ f. R
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观察ETF和鲸鱼活动
9 F6 @( A( w9 D6 f- \. a分析指出,流入现货比特币ETF的资金正在枯竭。3月,随着BTC飙升至历史高点,比特币ETF的平均每日购买量为12500 BTC。
9 z0 A, @+ q7 H4 f5 K* Z6 P1 e3 V/ ~0 |. F# R V
上周降至1300 BTC。) E( C' L/ Y) M( ]4 _0 M+ ?
& z. ]7 m) j( C* @* L$ v从SoSoValue上可以看出,自8月9日以来,流入现货比特币ETF的资金总额一直低于1亿美元大关。虽然这些产品拥有超过550亿美元的净资产,但需要购买活动来提振整体需求。
; M$ N; C7 e2 ~- o* c/ [: G* Z! l3 h, e% f V" A
鲸鱼似乎也在减少他们的比特币股份。30天平均鲸鱼持有量已从2月份的6%降至1%。这是自2021年2月以来每个CryptoQuant的最快下降。+ Z) \ Y" v+ u. A( Q3 d0 }) ^: J
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鲸鱼在支持比特币价格增长方面发挥着至关重要的作用。鲸鱼持有量的减少表明整个市场普遍看跌。
) f H1 e8 p# m+ q. u5 j
) O/ P( y; i2 i, K1 ?; e* P PSantiment的数据进一步证实了鲸鱼活动的减少,该数据显示,自3月以来,持有1000至10000枚比特币的比特币地址大幅下降。
' j. |8 ?2 u7 J( v* y, _$ z: u/ U2 D! k8 |3 E. B" P( U
尽管鲸鱼活动放缓,但长期比特币持有者增加了头寸。这些持有者一直在以每月约391000 BTC的速度增加他们的BTC持有量。
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比特币会突破其区间吗?+ S3 C1 {$ f5 X4 i R% h# _
随着对比特币需求的放缓,人们不禁要问,比特币是否会突破5.6万至6.2万美元的区间。对链上数据的深入研究描绘了一幅严峻的画面。
: r2 d& X0 D1 p, }0 e8 f. n$ b7 J
根据IntoTheBlock的数据,超过300万个地址以这个价格范围购买了比特币。以这些价格买入的新投资者并没有获得可观的利润。
6 q0 B% w$ ] _+ Y2 @$ R. v; t" ~! |/ v
因此,突破62000美元将面临抛售压力,因为他们急于获利。: C* J. T8 g+ w" p. p
0 Y) X' y7 N5 x技术指标也无法证明突破的必要性。相对强弱指数(RSI)也保持区间震荡,购买势头没有显著飙升。) }: v7 I& \2 Y3 n# p. Y
! |8 ?; ^& W# \0 f5 V I o位于积极区域的Awesome Oscillator显示出上升趋势。然而,短直方图条指向可能减弱的上升趋势。8 `7 O8 S7 N$ j6 Q5 L
然而,由于交易所比特币供应量下降,短期内不太可能出现低于当前范围的急剧下降趋势。7 [) E# d; ~% ~: l
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根据CryptoQuant的数据,交易所供应比率在过去一年中急剧下降。因此,尽管需求明显较低,但外汇供应也较低,从而降低了大幅回调的风险。: t4 J! d2 T: N% E# h- [9 P& o
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