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[lastpost] => 2813653 今日虚拟币市场是跌多涨少啊 1773224752 g9527
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随着价格的整合，比特币的需求已降至近几周的最低水平。然而，交易所比特币供应的减少使得价格大幅下跌成为可能。' f6 \7 S5 |1 d. h$ J
自8月5日从下跌中恢复以来，比特币[BTC]的交易区间在56K-62K美元之间。
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自8月8日以来，价格没有跌破或超过这一区间，这表明可能会出现盘整或市场不确定性。/ f- ~7 n% H& S. {& [& T2 P2 V J/ T
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阻止该区域以上出现重大突破的因素之一是比特币需求增长疲软，根据CryptoQuant的数据，比特币需求仍处于较低水平。最近几周，这甚至变成了负面的。4 b2 N$ \. q' ?: y5 y' @/ ~# {
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2024年4月，比特币的需求达到了三年来的峰值，恰逢比特币减半事件。然而，自那以后，它已降至今年的最低水平。3 c7 ~( ]8 F: |, f {$ s
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那么，为什么比特币的需求会下降呢？
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5 d2 C8 x# }6 I; B观察ETF和鲸鱼活动
) g3 x5 M, g9 E/ Y) ^" {4 M* P分析指出，流入现货比特币ETF的资金正在枯竭。3月，随着BTC飙升至历史高点，比特币ETF的平均每日购买量为12500 BTC。" m) v; j' {6 F& w/ C6 u. p( Z
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上周降至1300 BTC。7 @- P+ b% M: M& B& y* [' R
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从SoSoValue上可以看出，自8月9日以来，流入现货比特币ETF的资金总额一直低于1亿美元大关。虽然这些产品拥有超过550亿美元的净资产，但需要购买活动来提振整体需求。, Z6 Q. O- d1 k% t9 ^2 t
, r2 M) J* a, b6 y- h6 H& _# f鲸鱼似乎也在减少他们的比特币股份。30天平均鲸鱼持有量已从2月份的6%降至1%。这是自2021年2月以来每个CryptoQuant的最快下降。% } m: f1 w$ R4 w! f( t! W
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鲸鱼在支持比特币价格增长方面发挥着至关重要的作用。鲸鱼持有量的减少表明整个市场普遍看跌。
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7 w1 B( v4 b1 c8 H* ? fSantiment的数据进一步证实了鲸鱼活动的减少，该数据显示，自3月以来，持有1000至10000枚比特币的比特币地址大幅下降。. S4 p8 u+ B( j& i: u) n. y' N7 A
" K7 y$ k3 c& v; k7 F7 x: C尽管鲸鱼活动放缓，但长期比特币持有者增加了头寸。这些持有者一直在以每月约391000 BTC的速度增加他们的BTC持有量。# Q! ^/ N3 p9 J! b+ w7 ^ W
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比特币会突破其区间吗？, z( k9 u% @! ^" M; y& B
随着对比特币需求的放缓，人们不禁要问，比特币是否会突破5.6万至6.2万美元的区间。对链上数据的深入研究描绘了一幅严峻的画面。
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% z/ L X4 H1 c" D. Y8 b2 N根据IntoTheBlock的数据，超过300万个地址以这个价格范围购买了比特币。以这些价格买入的新投资者并没有获得可观的利润。: o* C6 E) v5 v7 I6 D# L* m e
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因此，突破62000美元将面临抛售压力，因为他们急于获利。
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技术指标也无法证明突破的必要性。相对强弱指数（RSI）也保持区间震荡，购买势头没有显著飙升。! \2 |6 Z6 m" L, U6 [
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位于积极区域的Awesome Oscillator显示出上升趋势。然而，短直方图条指向可能减弱的上升趋势。
1 |. T8 L2 B$ G+ ]% \9 ~然而，由于交易所比特币供应量下降，短期内不太可能出现低于当前范围的急剧下降趋势。( ]% l+ h( m" ` {% s
, D% p- d% u* X" v q, s1 c根据CryptoQuant的数据，交易所供应比率在过去一年中急剧下降。因此，尽管需求明显较低，但外汇供应也较低，从而降低了大幅回调的风险。
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