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[虚拟币交流]
比特币还会跌?跌到哪才是底?大跌后百倍机会在哪里?我算出来了（转）
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昨夜BTC大幅回撤，破位30日均线98.7k，暂至96k附近。原来纸老虎也是老虎。宏观态势方面的原因，关注我近期文章的朋友应该心如明镜：$ _5 r6 X* G( F* o& T7 T" X
5 j8 U* d& L8 Y& o一是前段时间借谷歌Willow量子计算机所渲染的恐慌。: M( Q# B+ G$ {, B. e3 i+ ?! I5 T( }
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二是昨日凌晨美联储给出未来降息的负面预期。未来1-2周，就是消化这个消息的阶段 。& U4 d$ B4 z$ B* _3 b) T. Q) z
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比特币下探95,700，会跌到多少？底在呢？
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我们看K线，会发现BTC已经高位横盘35天 。而且底部越来越高，虽然12.5那天突破10万下砸90,500附近，但是之后的下跌都稳在94,000的上方，直到美联储会议出现黑天鹅。后面还有一个美国把BTC纳入战略储备的预期 。1 `. B$ V% M7 J( N) s
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目前跌得差不多了，说白了就是K线价格哪怕下跌94,000以下，然后又快速收回，这不叫砸破支撑。再看链上数据BTC 的URPD数据，如图94,000、95,000都有强支撑。: c7 z6 d" T% s. q) F, ~; `
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8 P: P6 `: }$ `& t0 Q毕竟，数据是死的，人的情绪是“活”的。现在属于高位震荡等待新的方向。新的方向就是明年Q1。
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1 [& R8 q' _$ j& y7 m) L j( V: j+ M币圈谁为刀俎，谁为鱼肉？山寨赚钱机会在哪？
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; j! m M/ V6 y. W零和博弈的市场，无非是一个人的钱进另一个人的口袋。无论是长牛还是长熊，这个本质都不会变。市场一直在变，所以大家观点也一直在变，不要觉得上个月看好，这个月不看好就是不坚定，就是墙头草。
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3 F5 |: T/ j1 f' h" L5 _4 r. T6 SETH啥时候变强势的？我感觉是上几次ETH大的爆仓开始的，多头基本都投降了，所以11.21日我感觉ETH要变强了。
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, w/ q9 ]+ Z6 |ORDI这个币也有类似的逻辑，市场的多头都爆仓差不多了，都投降了，后面可能会好走一点。但是ETH是山寨头，是公链，基本面比ORDI好太多了，没法直接比较。如果你有能力，尽量是玩新币，赚钱快很多。反正我坚信比特币生态一定不会缺席，配置一些没问题，没必要只配置这一个赛道。
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% S1 ]% J7 G3 O2 G4 b! q+ y M# `) ?$ g如果你想抄更深的底，那就看95,700的BTC再下探的情况同时山寨的下探幅度了。
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( \8 H( G6 @8 { Y. p* a4 T6 A我之前也提示过，仓位是分仓还是一下子干下去，这个看个人习惯。还有抄底什么，前面文章我也提供过思路。或者你害怕，想等后面企稳，再进去，也可以的，毕竟没有人可以买在最低点。9 n6 o( m. Q" ~5 w; T/ ~4 i
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