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[虚拟币交流]
Bitwise高管：人们正低估比特币 BTC将大幅上涨(转）
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据两位 Bitwise 高管称，在特朗普ZF威胁要改革全球贸易，而经济指标表明各国央行可能向市场注入现金之际，比特币是一个“世代机遇”。% B# r8 w# w( Z# i/ n6 Z6 ~# c
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Bitwise Asset Management 的阿尔法策略主管 Jeff Park 在 2 月 16 日的 X 帖子中表示：“世界确实处于最大混乱的边缘。”$ C, \- s: S% ]7 h# y
' X3 Q3 L5 A2 }. p( RPark 指出，2 月 12 日众议院共和党预算计划将债务上限提高 4 万亿美元，旨在增加ZF支出，同时还有去全球化趋势加剧，尤其是唐纳德·特朗普
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最近升级的互惠关税威胁。! ~: y- z% C% Q6 T# @' H l
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Park 还指出，市场将出现他所谓的“最大延迟”，指出“黄金跑赢大盘的尾部风险”，共和党高达 4.5 万亿美元的“史无前例的减税”，以及他认为即将实施
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5 Z5 B7 J& _; x8 j1 D的收益率曲线控制 (YCC)——央行将长期利率作为刺激借贷和投资的目标。9 m/ U+ R: c$ z* _: Q, S
% U4 u/ P1 m* I美联储主席杰罗姆·鲍威尔对今年进一步降息的可能性泼了冷水——2 月 11 日，他告诉参议院银行委员会，美国经济“保持强劲”，美国“不需要急于调整”利率。$ ^8 Y6 O5 O6 K7 u9 D
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Bitwise 首席执行官 Hunter Horsley 在 2 月 16 日的 X 帖子中写道：“人们严重低估了比特币今年进入主流的巨大飞跃。从未如此乐观。”
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1 v: Q# ]0 f1 A2 }5 A1 K“BTC IV 百分位数是全年最低的，你看不到这一代机会，所以我们不一样了，”Park 补充道，他指的是比特币的隐含波动率百分位数——过去一年中波动率8 |& U3 e# ]& p* k: e L
- }; Q5 f6 _4 i1 p/ Q" W低于当前水平的天数百分比。
% w, h, H5 e |( o6 b0 a7 q' {; a5 Z4 a9 O% C) V; X! h; ]
根据 Deribit 的数据，比特币的波动率指数目前为 50.90，低于年度高点 71.28，IV 百分位数为 12.3。* C/ t# l7 U5 Z5 D2 W! o9 C
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据 CoinGecko 数据，比特币在过去 24 小时内下跌超过 1.5%，交易价格略高于 96,000 美元。
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- X' m# T* m, P+ C* e T今年到目前为止，比特币的交易价格在 90,000 美元至 100,000 美元之间，但在上个月末特朗普就职典礼期间达到 108,786 美元的峰值。" S7 q3 ~! K X/ o& O
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追踪加密货币恐惧与贪婪指数的市场情绪在 2 月 17 日为 51 分（总分为 100 分），表明市场处于“中性”状态。市场情绪较上周的“恐惧”水平有所改善，但低于, G+ v; M' x# N5 E4 F6 v( ?
/ l" @# f" Z. {8 N g7 a5 j上个月更为积极的市场情绪水平。
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