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比特币在特朗普关税威胁下遭遇重挫，曾经的"特朗普交易"热点正经历严峻考验。9 A* F: D1 R* Z4 [) }5 b3 z( f3 j- G6 s
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28日，比特币单日暴跌高达7.3%，跌至自去年11月以来的最低点，较历史高点下跌 25%。整个2月，比特币已下跌超过20%。若这一跌势持续到月底，将创下自2022年6月以来的最大月度跌幅。
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此次暴跌并非比特币独自承受，以太坊、Polkadot和XRP等其他主要加密货币同日均下跌超过7%，显示出加密市场的普遍恐慌情绪。BTC Markets Pty Ltd的首席执行官Caroline Bowler表示：
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"上一次我们看到类似情绪还是在2022年的'加密寒冬'期间。这次暴跌可以视为对特朗普关税和地缘ZZ不确定性等宏观忧虑的直接反应。"
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( j- k8 T. [3 J"特朗普交易"幻灭：加密资产从狂欢到挫折
# I2 z5 O$ h' g( ^据央视新闻，特朗普于2月27日宣布，从3月4日起将对加拿大和墨西哥实施25%的关税。这一消息打击了市场此前对特朗普可能改变贸易政策路线的期望。
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1 K0 ^2 h4 ^. d: m0 Y1 [0 M S2 T贸易紧张局势导致28日全球市场普遍出现避险情绪，亚洲股市几乎全线下跌，欧洲期货也出现下滑。但作为对风险情绪变化极为敏感的资产，加密货币成为受打击最严重的投资品类之一。
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( k" y2 F7 A8 P4 }$ `4 W比特币的暴跌凸显了市场情绪的急剧转变。曾经，买入比特币是最受欢迎的"特朗普交易"之一，投资者期望特朗普亲加密货币的政策立场将推动市场大幅上涨。加密托管公司Bitgo Inc亚太地区场外交易总监Stefan von Haenisch表示：- }& ~2 |' t: r8 K. D) V. x
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"考虑到当前宏观环境，我们现在的处境并不令人意外。"
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他补充说，交易员仍在等待特朗普为该行业提出具体措施，包括比特币储备计划。* F3 w: ? u& w/ Y0 k0 a, m
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市场前景：技术支撑与投资者撤资9 P: u2 `5 A/ X
投资者现在被迫思考世界上最大的加密货币可能会跌至何处。加密平台YouHodler的市场主管Ruslan Lienkha通过技术分析指出，比特币在70000美元附近有支撑位，但他表示投资者不应假设比特币崩盘会那么严重。Lienkha指出：
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# ]0 f. e8 `' ^ x) h8 P3 h"只有在股票市场负面情绪主导的情况下，我们才会看到这一价位。"
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# J% F. H4 r9 T. k负面情绪本周也冲击了现货美国比特币ETF，周二投资者净流出超过10亿美元，创下这些产品自去年推出以来的最大单日流出。
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% e, `" j# s6 K2 M) g, N3 x尽管市场遭遇挫折，特朗普已经做出一些令加密货币支持者欣喜的改变，包括在关键职位安排加密货币支持者。此前在前任主席Gary Gensler领导下对加密行业进行多年打击的美国证券交易委员会，近几周来已关闭了对几家加密机构的调查。
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6 G$ n5 y- P5 G0 O* e特朗普曾表示，他希望将美国打造成"地球的加密货币之都和世界比特币超级大国"。然而，市场目前的表现表明，实现这一愿景可能比预期更具挑战性。
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7 {7 p( ?' l. Y8 i, x; m根据彭博社策略师Mark Cudmore的观点，真正的恐慌可能还未到来。他警告说：2 w4 M* Q7 h1 W$ d/ y( s. U- i+ W
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"比特币未来总会经历另一次70%以上的崩盘，这是其固有特性。72000-74000美元区间可能是触发下一个加密寒冬的技术临界点。"
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