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[lastpost] => 2813889 Solana 市值超越以太坊，跻身万亿美元市场，新的王者即将诞生？（转） 1773249375 jackcool1011
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美股波动性罕见超越新兴市场和比特币，同时一向被视为安全资产的美债剧烈波动，这让投资者开始质疑持有美国资产的明智性。
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瑞银认为，一旦全球无风险利率出现波动，意味着所有市场都将被颠覆。分析师Ed Al-Hussainy更是一针见血地指出：“我其实不担心1 ~! |- d4 [! }; q/ ]# K0 C
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衰退，我担心的是金融危机。”, T" ?) i9 Y. R( {8 {
美股周五重回涨势，看上去市场风险偏好情绪恢复，但实际上投资者已经开始质疑美国资产的安全性，尤其是美债的剧烈波动，让金4 R+ v% B: A8 X( Q3 {/ x3 r7 A& o2 H
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融危机的恐惧再次笼罩华尔街。7 g& ~6 d3 b0 z) B$ v) v, H- m8 r
9 K# w* Z# d6 t过去一周，美国10年期国债收益率创下20多年来最大单周跳升，美股则跳水后又暴涨。表面上看，标普500指数周涨超5%，美债收益
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率回到2月水平，比特币收盘走高，似乎一切如常。
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9 o/ ]" P/ J1 V* A* T7 T/ q/ g然而令人不安的是，本周美股、美债和美元同时下跌的现象，正是典型的新兴市场特征，而非全球最安全资产的表现。尤其本周美国
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长债出现如此大的波动，流动性危机似乎就在眼前，这让投资者开始质疑持有美国资产的明智性。瑞银集团首席策略师巴努·巴韦贾更0 \4 }/ c- t% D
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是表示：
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这太可怕了。我们正在重新定义全球无风险利率，如果全球无风险利率出现波动，它将颠覆所有市场。' q2 A/ {8 J# U% D: B4 b- }! S; W1 ?
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历史罕见，美国资产波动性超越新兴市场和比特币; `3 W% l7 @1 A7 V5 y; |$ A8 a% k5 ]
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特朗普最近的关税政策不仅损害了对美国经济的信心，也动摇了投资者对美国政策方向和美元资产的信任。即使以华尔街漫长的历史; z- B8 r4 G8 M
4 f. Z. Q: r, Z标准来看，本周都是一个惨烈的交易周，美股像是坐上了过山车，美债美元的走势更是暗示美国避险地位似乎不保了：8 s1 _0 b' g G1 ~$ V" F+ C$ A" `
( W5 N( Y' w1 I# F# l2 E周一，因所谓的乌龙关税消息，美股上演15分钟脉冲式巨震，纳指一度低位暴拉10%，美债跳水。
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周二，不会关税豁免的消息粉碎美股反弹希望，道指盘中高位狂泻超2000点，标普抹平超4%涨幅转跌，美国国债市场则出现去杠杆式大跌。. H5 p' L* e% [ q+ `; v! @
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周三，美国暂缓部分关税，三大美股指至少收涨近8%，标普创2008年来最大涨幅，美股交易量创下300亿股的历史新高。十年期美债
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4 `1 ?4 U; W% A5 E- H' P) [收益率冲高回落。
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' `. ]9 f! H3 ]( y/ W周四，全球投资者逃离美国资产，美国股债汇三杀，纳指跌超4%，美元两年来最大日跌，黄金新高。
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周五，美联储暗示或出手，美股反弹收涨，但美债美元的跌势，警示着美国避险天堂的地位似乎不保了。2 S8 b" M3 _5 t* A4 g; m
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9 F( s* ]3 r$ PLoomis, Sayles & Company的投资经理Andrea DiCenso表示："美国市场是否开始表现得像新兴市场？毫无疑问，
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, Y/ }" o |& l是的，这正是我们所看到的。"
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; J# N$ c9 S$ N& Z" p2 X根据数据显示，美股ETF的波动性甚至超过了追踪新兴市场的基金，也一度高于比特币。这种情况除了疫情、去! q+ w3 r% q4 c0 _* s
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年8月危机和美联储激进加息时期外，几乎从未出现。
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Renaissance Capital的Neil Dutta在给客户的邮件中直言："标普500指数像加密货币一样交易，这可能不是好事。"
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其实如果以价格行为来看的话就是提前做了超大回调，但是会不会转趋势就另外说了 |
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