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[虚拟币交流]
比特币明年将进入熊市？资深人士警告：对宏观前景没有信心
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财联社8月18日讯（编辑 马兰）加密资产管理公司Canary Capital首席执行官Steven McClurg上周表示，比特币在本轮上涨周期内最高可能升至15万美元，之后就会进入下行区间。
/ i" K" t1 i$ q. c而他作出这一判断的主要原因在于，他对宏观经济的前景并不看好。因此，不仅比特币将在明年迎来又一次熊市，广泛的经济熊市也即将出现。+ M' f0 @: _: _) @2 \, s
比特币目前价格在115800美元附近徘徊，距离15万美元的预测价格还有约30%的上涨空间。McClurg认为，比特币价格今年升至14万美元至15万美元区间的可能性超过50%。
+ n! [4 B- _0 h6 S8 \他还将近期比特币价格的上涨主要归因于现货比特币ETF资金的流入和资金管理公司购买数字货币的行动，不仅是小型机构加入了加密货币的购买浪潮，大型主权财富基金也不落于后，这是推动价格上涨的真正因素。6 v: d0 f9 N; P) a
此外，他还警告，以太坊是一个过时的网络，尽管最近几周以太坊成为加密货币中涨幅最大的代币之一，但像Solana和Sui这样的新区块链已经在技术上实现了超越，因此他预计以太坊会逐渐衰落，价格也可能无法再创新高。" Y# p7 `" K5 W( _' X% B- D; m
相反观点
, ~/ M! g$ c9 ?2 ~$ qMcClurg对比特币和以太坊的看法在当前环境中无疑相当悲观，很多市场参与者并不认同他的熊市观点。, S& P7 N8 T' P8 Q' a# ?3 \# i
Strategy执行董事长Michael Saylor在6月曾预测，只要比特币价格不跌至零，它就会涨到100万美元。比特币已经实现了突破，“冬天”将不会再来。
1 d+ B/ e+ W) {% N; Y0 K: o! ^ N8 nBitwise首席投资官Matt Hougan也认为，数字货币的牛市不会很快放缓。他坚持2026年将是继续上涨的一年，且这一涨势将持续好几年。
% V/ ~# n u. K) p$ a: J. lAmberdata衍生品总监Greg Magadini则指出，尽管有些人称以太坊为过时的技术，但以太坊拥有开发者生态系统，就像iPhone平台一样，允许开发者直接在其基础设施上构建应用程序。这些网络效应只会不断累积。
* a5 N, O. G( s; y7 T, R4 d7 ~" l基于此，Magadini预计以太坊价格将继续追随比特币上涨，有望达到8000美元至10000美元区间。不过，他也认同比特币有望在今年涨破15万美元，这与对冲通胀风险以及投资者风险偏好的改变有关。. A4 E% Z5 W9 o" c% F; z
他表示，比特币现在就像是数字黄金与风险资产的混合体，在股市上涨且同时美联储面临降息压力的大背景下，这一资产受到两种情绪的同时推动。1 h/ Q$ ?/ v$ ]% Q% M
（财联社 马兰）
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