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[lastpost] => 2758058 以太坊的涨势看起来比 2020 年更健康，但仍有一个担忧（转） 1755570892 小钱儿
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[虚拟币交流]
比特币与科技股的关联性可能对比特币造成不利影响 (转）
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专家表示，比特币最近几周的低迷可能与科技股占比较高的纳斯达克的表现有关，因为挥之不去的宏观经济因素继续拖累股市和加密货币。. e" F, R$ X/ Y! {/ Q* @* m
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在星期二鸣叫加密货币研究平台 Ecoinometrics 认为比特币“面临来自股市的阻力。”该公司分析师指出，当纳斯达克 100 指数（由美国前 100 家公司组成）经历“均值回归阶段，12 个月回报率低于平均水平”时，比特币往往会落后。
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比特币面临来自股市的阻力。
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当纳斯达克 100 指数经历均值回归阶段，12 个月回报率低于平均水平时，比特币通常也会落后，并且面临更大幅度下跌的风险。- O8 s+ L) x6 W. E3 S8 F( }: z) _
0 i& a/ x; D* r2 {3 ]3 c Q现在，我们就处于这样的境地。3 K' E4 d! m, f. F3 y e+ p
" B* v) F5 L6 \ w' O均值回归理论认为，资产价格在经历极端偏离后最终会回归历史平均水平。因此，Ecoinometrics 写道，比特币更有可能“面临更大幅度下跌的风险，而这正是我们目前所面临的情况”。. v9 W4 y7 {4 T& Y
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这 2025年4月关税驱动的减产和2024年8月 和 2022年11月底部走势呈现出纳斯达克指数站稳脚跟并开始回升的模式。在每一次下跌中，比特币都落后于纳斯达克100指数，然后最终跟进。
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9 W8 {& V# l5 j7 V* y但这一次的可能性有多大？
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( {2 V1 j; P) a. r. t6 J7 ~数据来自CryptoQuant数据显示，比特币与纳斯达克指数的30天滚动相关性已降至接近零。这两种资产上次脱钩是在2025年7月，当时顶级加密货币反弹了18%，创历史新高.（尽管 BTC 此后已设定再创历史新高（八月。）" E& @4 V* \2 d2 V. c
7 v2 _- U/ ^( h6 _: {这种短期脱钩引发了其他分析师更为乐观的展望。
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1 V2 N/ ]/ i9 v, tBitget 首席分析师 Ryan Lee 表示，解密近期相关性的下降是“由比特币作为独立资产类别的成熟所驱动”，并将其视为“中性到看涨的发展”。. z2 B5 L& Z3 e2 Z1 d: p
3 l7 x S$ l+ d1 c# X他认为，“美国失业率上升和经济放缓的迹象可能会增强比特币作为对冲法定货币贬值的吸引力。”
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除了脱钩之外，比特币上涨的另一个潜在催化剂是即将召开的美联储会议。根据芝加哥商品交易所的数据，市场坚定预期美联储将降息四分之一个百分点。美联储观察工具。预测市场 Myriad 上的用户，由解密的母公司 DASTAN 同意——降息四分之一个百分点的可能性接近78%在九月。
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此前曾有专家表示，这种情况可能会引发风险资产的反弹。辐 到 解密—Derive 研究主管 Sean Dawson 指出，与华尔街“恐慌指数”VIX 挂钩的期货将在美联储利率决定当天到期，这是一个“强大的波动性火药桶”。
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