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[虚拟币交流]
XRP行情预测：10月18-25日SEC关键节点或引爆突破-转
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XRP现报 $3.17，过去24小时上涨4%，日成交量达 $60亿。作为市值排名第三的大盘币，走势强劲，正逼近关键关口。随着美国SEC针对现货XRP ETF申请的关键截止日期（10月18日至25日）临近，接下来几周或将成为该代币的重要行情窗口。9 N% X" Z7 L/ u: ~ ?
XRP在SEC关键节点前走强SEC仍在推迟多份现货XRP ETF申请的裁定，其中包括今年3月提交的Franklin XRP ETF。尽管Franklin的最终表决时间定在11月14日，但大部分其他申请预计会集中在10月18日至25日这个关键窗口期。 6 q# ~: y7 E& W5 g
目前共有15份XRP ETF申请在审查中。根据Polymarket的数据，交易员依然给出93%的概率，认为会在年底前获批。 这与以太坊ETF获批前的行情类似，当时多次推迟也未打击市场情绪。对XRP而言，一旦通过，将是机构入场和新流动性注入的重大利好。 与此同时，山寨季正在升温。Altcoin Season Index 已达到78，显示资金正在从比特币流入山寨板块。如果10月有利好落地，XRP有望借势起飞。 ( [: Q- [& |# V" R- k
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散户需求与合约数据同步走强除了ETF之外，链上与衍生品数据也显示需求在升温。XRP本周期货未平仓合约（OI）均值达到 85.1亿美元，高于上周的 73.7亿美元，多头加仓明显。尽管OI仍低于7月的 109.4亿美元，但持续回升说明市场信心在增强。 资金费率同样走高，周五达到 0.0107%，多头愿意付溢价持仓。整体来看，市场正在为潜在的大行情提前布局。 支撑看涨逻辑的关键要点： - OI从73.7亿美元攀升至85.1亿美元，连续上行。
- 资金费率0.0107%，多头付费持仓。
- Altcoin Season Index达78，资金正在加速轮动至山寨板块。
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这意味着交易员正在提前卡位，期待10月的潜在利好成为行情催化剂，推动价格进一步上攻。 4 _1 I) M" u! }6 g
* m1 G9 v( X( W" d5 JXRP价格预测 —— 技术面展望从技术面来看，XRP已完成下降楔形的突破，行情转向看多。该反转形态意味着盘整阶段基本结束。 - M/ W! Z; S+ e- ?% e
当前价格运行在 50日EMA（$3.01） 以及 200日EMA（$2.12） 之上，形成强有力的长期支撑。 斐波那契回撤显示 $2.99 是近期的启动位；XRP目前正测试 $3.25 阻力位。若成功突破，该水平上方目标依次为 $3.43 与 $3.66 —— 7月的上涨正是被空头压制在此。若动能延续，中期目标看向 $5，机构资金回流将成为主要驱动力。 RSI目前在 63，尚未进入超买区间。近期的看涨吞没K线显示买盘力量增强，并与7月以来形成的更高低点趋势相呼应。 对于交易员而言，战术性多单可考虑在 $3.26 上方入场，目标 $3.43 与 $3.66，止损设在 $2.99 下方，风险回报较优。若10月18-25日期间ETF获批，XRP有望突破 $3.66，并开启更大级别的行情，潜在上探 $5。
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