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[虚拟币交流]
比特币下跌，黄金触顶——但 Uptober 尚未结束（转）
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今年十月已经测试了比特币的[BTC]信徒。在通常被称为“Uptober”的月份过半时，BTC 发现自己处于陌生的境地，遭遇了历史上最糟糕的月中表现之一。
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8 L5 C2 y$ Q9 z+ t6 |6 D但你看不到的是，比特币收盘上涨的可能性仍然很大，罕见的BTC-黄金图表细节也表明可能已经触底。+ I- a! `' o; Y! C4 ~( s; y+ }% E
# `0 M: C) q$ v# M( zUptober 能否如期实现目标，还是说这将是它的终结？" q; y |" W; e" r
5 P( o# V2 u+ ]- z开局艰难，但历史看好牛市
G( e( T/ z5 v" O) l2025 年 10 月已经赢得了比特币十月份表现为有记录以来第二糟糕。对于通常看涨的月份来说，这是一个令人惊讶的转折。) y% O/ Y' V/ L% Y& {* i# d
* @( w* D4 B1 y3 N. U `来源：Alphractal
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15年来，只有四个10月份收盘下跌。但鉴于比特币最终上涨的可能性高达73%，胜算仍然对比特币有利。
3 q# N6 W: O3 F1 t6 v" _8 ]
8 r+ C9 \( J$ j( D4 ]尽管开局不稳，但许多人相信本月结束前可能会转为看涨，保持这种势头。
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6 m# m* E8 O/ l4 Q% A5 _( l0 T) V事情变得有趣了; Q0 K0 Y/ D* F5 d
BTC/黄金比率中罕见的信号表明形势可能很快就会发生转变。6 `0 _$ M2 r( [" l
( f0 I t. @1 f! v' o5 R来源：X% K6 a. Q6 `5 O: V' ]2 g
/ y3 h* i2 m3 h% k" h8 D根据最近的数据，该比率已达到迄今为止仅在主要市场底部出现的水平，而这些时刻往往是从黄金转向比特币的最佳时机。
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- O, z: U9 X, N Y+ z7 lBTC/黄金震荡指标徘徊在-1.8左右，从历史上看，这与BTC开始跑赢黄金的周期低点相关。
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正如 Alphractal 首席执行官 Joao Wedson 所说，该图表“基本上是在大声疾呼”现在是“出售黄金、购买比特币的时候了”。
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+ C9 t! T& I5 \. x) ~随着黄金价格处于高位，而比特币出现触底信号，风险回报方程现在可能更倾向于加密货币，而不是传统的避风港。, e3 u6 @$ \* H, g
- ~" B; [1 Q+ R" Q. V+ s/ r% k空头在 10.7 万美元附近失去动力! x9 H! Z6 k* @! x* `$ q
经过几天的持续抛售，截至发稿时，比特币似乎稳定在 107,000 美元左右。
+ W: @ @* ]7 W* O& X/ E$ p& h5 C, s* z! f# l' U; j5 d
来源：TradingView
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3 ^/ [4 `( I( }; m( T2 ^+ h日线图显示看跌势头减弱，RSI 指标显示 BTC 处于超卖区域。与此同时，MACD 图柱趋于平缓；如果买盘活跃，则可能出现动能逆转。
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s6 }4 `6 P9 j0 E9 e& w+ Q5 a/ \然而，BTC 的交易价格仍然低于关键 EMA（20、50、100），整体趋势仍看跌。
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$ q/ c! z" V. i. Z4 _突破 110,000 美元的决定性举措可能确认复苏，但在此之前，有点乐观永远不会伤害任何人。/ c; N6 o4 f. I9 e$ G# J# l1 \
/ b8 H! U" r3 x& i4 U- v |
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十月才过一半别急着下结论，比特币这货向来爱搞幺蛾子 |
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这波跌得挺狠，但老韭菜都懂，Uptober还没完呢 |
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