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[lastpost] => 2781160 谁在抛售比特币？为什么比特币价格下跌？（转） 1763036290 22301
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比特币面临长期持有者的缓慢抛售，投资者逐步获利，这表明市场周期已趋于成熟和稳定。
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$ _0 G5 R# u, v( B1 V, F* L' F- p1 c6 x9 g分析人士表示，比特币的抛售压力来自谨慎的长期持有者，而不是恐慌性抛售者，这表明市场趋势更加成熟。$ S: E) _; I# ?, i% O: M, g2 B x
% t7 |0 b, a* _5 H尽管交易所交易产品、企业和机构投资者都表现出强劲的买盘兴趣，但比特币近期维持上涨势头的艰难仍在持续。在X上分享的一份详细分析中，克里斯·库珀特许金融分析师（CFA）解释说，目前的抛售压力主要来自长期持有者，也就是所谓的“HODLers”，他们在多年积累后正在慢慢获利了结。
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广告
; v% @+ g1 y: H v" r链上数据显示，这种抛售并非恐慌性抛售，而是行为的渐进和可控转变，反映了更加成熟的市场动态。, p, r L P% z7 y6 E/ G
6 P0 `/ A; t$ V/ j: ]) D长期持有者正在缓慢获利了结
6 a- {% @* ?' n* x: V) D- ^库珀强调了一个特定的链上指标的重要性：比特币一年以上未活跃交易的百分比。历史上，该指标在熊市期间会上升，因为投资者会持有比特币；而在牛市期间，由于持有者在价格上涨时抛售，该指标会急剧下降。然而，这一次的趋势更为平缓。数据显示，该指标并未出现急剧下降，而是呈现出缓慢而持续的下降趋势，即便在……比特币的价格略有上涨。
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这一趋势表明，长期持有者正在逐步实现利润，而不是一次性抛售。库珀认为，这种行为与目前横盘整理的市场状况相符，投资者行事谨慎，等待更明确的信号后再进行大举操作。, O n( Y/ r# K3 y; ]
% v) \' S# G# Z4 Y0 q/ ]6 k投资者疲劳和年末调整4 m& G- {2 c! z% V6 T
库伊珀认为，部分销售放缓的原因是投资者疲劳。比特币近期的表现低于预期。黄金和标普500指数双双下跌，令投资者失望，他们原本预期在比特币四年周期的牛市阶段能获得更强劲的回报。许多人曾预期10月和11月会出现一波上涨行情，这两个月通常是比特币的季节性上涨行情，但这一波行情并未出现。! T/ P$ q- e0 }3 @6 ~* R
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另请阅读：! v X+ t7 q0 E: w! C+ |' s/ r" r
比特币价格本周会跌破 10 万美元吗？
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因此，一些长期持仓者已开始锁定利润，并在年底前调整仓位，这很可能是为了税务筹划和投资组合再平衡。这种失望情绪与务实决策相结合，导致了持续的抛售压力，但并未出现恐慌性抛售，因为市场参与者比以往周期更加谨慎地管理风险。9 W# [2 f, ?5 [% q
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更成熟的市场周期
- X' ]' x5 {3 c" c- H8 e* z在库伊珀的分析基础上，胡里奥·莫雷诺CryptoQuant 研究主管提供的数据支持了这一观点，数据显示，比特币一年非活跃供应量（衡量长期持有者活跃度的指标）在 2021 年和当前的 2024-2025 年周期中仅下降了 10 个百分点，而 2017-2018 年期间的降幅则高达 20 个百分点。
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- G% W, j6 v9 E! d' g8 p莫雷诺的研究结果证实，本轮抛售是可控且有序的，反映出投资者群体经验更加丰富，比特币市场也日趋成熟。尽管价格走势较为平缓，但两位分析师一致认为比特币的基本面依然强劲，一旦卖方力量耗尽，就可能为下一轮显著的价格反弹铺平道路。7 [/ f' ]5 d2 e; `6 r6 i/ K
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