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[虚拟币交流]
华尔街股市上涨，以太坊下跌——但ETH/BTC汇率却呈现出另一番景象。（转）
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作为市值第二大的加密货币，以太坊 [ETH] 经常被视为山寨币市场状况的晴雨表。 近期迹象表明结果可能出现分歧，反映出加密货币市场和传统市场都存在不确定性。 这种兼顾看涨和看跌解读的双重叙事已经形成。[url=]以太坊的[/url]一方面是罗素2000指数，另一方面是比特币，两者之间的关系正在不断演变。 罗素2000指数与以太坊的相关性减弱追踪美国小盘股的罗素2000指数历来与以太坊保持着很强的相关性。 这种关系经常起到指引以太坊价格走势的作用，并对更广泛的山寨币市场产生连锁反应。 然而，近期的价格走势表明，这种趋势已明显失控。尽管罗素2000指数持续攀升，但以太坊在持续的抛售压力下不断创出新低，价格徘徊在3294美元附近。 Alphractal 首席执行官 João Wedson 认为，这种脱钩凸显了传统金融与数字资产之间更广泛的脱节。 “传统金融和加密货币的走势并不总是同步的，尤其是在熊市或宏观经济转型阶段。”
这段时期对加密货币市场来说损失尤其惨重。 自 2025 年 8 月达到历史最高点以来，以太坊的市值估计已缩水 2808.9 亿美元，而加密货币总市值已下降超过 1 万亿美元。 韦德森概述了造成这种分歧的三种可能解释：这种趋势可能是暂时的，它可能反映了全球风险环境的更深层次的变化，或者加密货币市场可能比传统资产更早地反映了未来的状况。 以太坊兑比特币走强尽管以太坊与股票市场走势背道而驰，但它在加密货币市场中却呈现出截然不同的面貌——相对于比特币而言，以太坊的相对强势程度可见一斑。 ETH/BTC 货币对仍然是衡量市场偏好的广泛关注指标，表明资金是转向以太坊还是集中在比特币周围。 目前来看，以太坊似乎占据优势。ETH/BTC 交易对自 10 月以来持续走高，涨幅约为 8%。 从历史数据来看，该比率的持续增长预示着以太坊表现优异，这通常与山寨币风险偏好的扩大同时发生。 动量指标也支持这一观点。资金流量指数持续保持在 50 至 80 的看涨区间内，表明资金持续流入以太坊。 至关重要的是，ETH/BTC 比率还可以作为衡量山寨币整体表现的更广泛指标。当该比率上升时，通常会预示着或伴随整个山寨币市场更强劲的走势。 山寨币准备迁移了吗？山寨币季节指数能够最清晰地反映非比特币资产是否正在获得关注，与 ETH/BTC 趋势的变化密切相关。 截至发稿时，该指数报33点，略有上涨，暗示着市场下方正在积聚早期动能。 尽管如此，这一走势仍属初步迹象。单次上涨并不能确认持续上涨，但确实表明短期状况正在改善。 山寨币需要持续上涨才能支撑其更具建设性的中长期前景。 就目前而言，种种迹象表明，山寨币的表现可能略优于比特币，尽管短期内收益可能仍然有限。
最后想说的话- 以太坊长期以来与罗素 2000 指数走势密切相关，但现在已明显出现与罗素 2000 指数脱钩的迹象。
- 相对于比特币，资金向以太坊的轮动似乎正在加强，这一发展预示着潜在的上涨趋势。1 A" [. R$ s# T }7 ~2 F$ ^- P3 O
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这波ETH真是独立行情，跟美股小盘股说拜拜了，看来币圈也得自己扛起节奏来 |
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