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近期比特币价格跌破 2025 年 10 月 31 日报告中提示的关键水平，下行趋势得到确认。从历史周期对比来看，本轮回撤的幅度与节奏，与过往熊市阶段高度接近。市场讨论焦点也因此从“趋势是否转向”，转向“下一次更值得配置的窗口何时到来”。 回顾本轮周期，我们在 2022 年 10 月 28 日基于周期框架识别出牛市起点，并在 2023 年 7 月 6 日推演本轮周期顶部或触及 125,000 美元。2024 年末至 2025 年 10 月阶段性高点前后，比特币已多次呈现第五轮牛市接近尾声的特征；随着关键水平失守，市场正式进入熊市确认阶段。 在此背景下，我们结合一年期移动均线、月度随机指标（Stochastics）与月度 RSI 等多套量化模型，对潜在低位区间对应的时间与价格范围进行评估，以判断下行风险是否基本出清，以及市场是否开始累积由弱转强的条件。 跌破一年期均线后，周期时间框架开始指向 2026 年2025 年 11 月，比特币跌破一年期移动均线。历史经验显示，这一信号往往对应熊市启动，且过往熊市阶段通常持续约 12 个月。由此推算，下一轮牛市可能在 2026 年第四季度启动，而周期低点更可能提前落在 2026 年第三季度。 从更宏观维度观察，我们认为比特币“四年周期”并非主要由区块奖励减半推动，而更可能与美国中期选举周期形成节奏呼应。历史数据显示，2010、2014、2018、2022 以及即将到来的 2026 年中期选举周期，均与主要熊市阶段相伴出现。相较减半机制，中期选举带来的监管与ZZ不确定性波动，更能解释比特币周期顶部与底部的时间分布。 技术指标尚未触及关键阈值，见底仍需等待“反转确认”技术层面，月度随机指标（Stochastics）在过去五轮周期中，往往在跌破 15% 的“深度超卖”区间后完成筑底，并在随后 1–3 个月内出现向上反转，标志熊市尾声。目前该指标约为 39%，尚未触及关键阈值。 类似地，月度 RSI 在历史周期中通常于约 48 附近形成关键支撑带，真正的见底信号往往出现在“先下破关键水平、随后拐头回升”的反转确认阶段。目前 RSI 约在 50 一线，虽接近关键区间，但尚未出现明确的“下破后回升”结构。 两项核心指标尚未给出明确的见底确认：市场仍未出现“最后一轮集中出清”后所对应的反转确认。 整体来看，本轮熊市的最终低点可能尚未出现。历史经验显示，比特币更常在成交量偏低、抛压逐步消退、市场参与度回落的阶段完成筑底，而伴随连锁清算与放量下跌的快速回撤，更像阶段性投降式抛售，而非周期最终低点。 在ZZ周期框架与技术指标验证双重视角下，我们更倾向于认为，真正值得恢复配置的窗口，需等待关键月度指标触及极端区间后出现反转确认。当前价格已接近历史低位对应区间，但反转信号尚未出现，熊市尾声阶段仍需保持耐心。有序恢复配置的前提，是确认下行动能衰竭，而非仅凭价格接近低位判断趋势反转。
" D) k" ]0 [$ r" b3 L2 u8 Q+ G9 P |
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当前离线
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当前离线
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当前离线
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这波跌得挺狠，感觉还没到底，先稳住别急着抄，等信号再动 |
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