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3月23日，GTC泽汇资本认为，在宏观压力持续累积的背景下，走势明显转弱，而比特币则维持流动性驱动下的整理格局。随着实际利率上升以及通胀风险加剧，黄金吸引力受到削弱，而比特币仍处于典型的周期性盘整阶段。整体来看，市场正在从传统避险逻辑转向对流动性和利率环境更加敏感的资产定价模式。# Q+ K3 F: D3 j" ~7 C- L4 c
1 j3 `8 y4 H" I* d, F当前市场表现显示，黄金正逐步逼近技术性熊市区间。数据显示，其价格较1月历史高点已回落接近20%。尽管紧张局势一度被视为支撑黄金的重要因素，但实际走势却出现背离，自2月底冲突升级以来，黄金价格反而下跌约10%。GTC泽汇资本表示，这一变化反映出宏观变量正在主导市场，而非传统避险情绪。
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, z& i' C- R3 }利率预期的重新定价成为关键因素之一。市场普遍将降息预期大幅后移，并预计紧缩政策将持续至2026年末。同时，受地缘风险推动的油价上涨正在加剧通胀压力，进一步强化“高利率维持更久”的环境。GTC泽汇资本认为，这种宏观组合对无息资产如黄金构成明显压制，是其近期走弱的重要原因。
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. ^4 y# \3 Q) @) ]- ]) A) D% }从流动性角度观察，以M2货币供应量（包括现金、存款及其他高流动性资产）调整后，黄金价格已接近历史高位水平，类似于1974年和2011年的周期。GTC泽汇资本表示，这意味着黄金当前处于高位震荡阶段，可能正在构筑相对于全球流动性的周期性底部。
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相比之下，比特币在M2调整框架下仍处于类似2024年的整理阶段，并正在重新测试2021年的高点。历史数据显示，每一轮周期中，比特币在流动性调整后均会突破前高。当前比特币价格仍较去年10月高点低约40%，GTC泽汇资本认为，这种区间更像是上涨前的正常盘整，而非趋势反转。. u6 \2 w: ]. y# C6 x. Z5 B) M
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值得注意的是，近期黄金与比特币走势出现同步迹象。在跌破关键价位后，两者价格呈现出较强的正相关性，此前二者一度出现明显分化。GTC泽汇资本表示，这种相关性回归或意味着市场正在用统一的宏观框架来重新定价不同资产类别。
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综合来看，GTC泽汇资本认为，当前市场核心驱动因素仍是利率路径与流动性环境。黄金在高利率与通胀压力下承压，而比特币则在流动性框架中维持结构性整理。未来走势的关键，将取决于宏观政策预期是否发生转变，以及市场风险偏好的进一步演化。
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GTC这分析看着专业，但黄金跌这么多+比特币还盘着， |
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