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[lastpost] => 2659016 顶级交易员发布比特币警告,预测比特币在长期疲软和整合中崩溃(转) 1719129863 mattf
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美股隔夜又锤了,原因很简单,加息概率再度攀升,5月份加息25个基点概率提升至近80%,6月份继续加息25个基点概率成为较大概率,这是源于密歇根大学公布的一项数据,报告显示一年期通胀预测值是3.7%,而实际值是4.6%,不仅大超预期,同时比前值高了整整1%。这是通胀控制不利所致,会让美联储后面的货币政策畏首畏尾,不敢轻易放松,虽然说以目前的利率水平来看,持续加息不太可能,但如果一直维持高利率,那么对于货币流动性也会产生致命压力。因此从宏观来看,对于风险市场是极其不利的,这是和此前加息结束的乐观态度截然相反的结果。8 m% q7 k Y0 l5 N' ~8 ]" v( c; c
Z9 j' m3 x" H4 m. r从链上数据不难看出,近期大资金是持续减持的状态,尤其是一些鲸鱼账户,同时散户的筹码也出现一定松动,说明在30000上方是筹码共识的止损止盈关口,这种走势不利于持续拉升,配合上宏观消息的不及预期,坐实了比特币日线背离的事实,因此短期走势依然是风险大于机会,直到比特币日线背离解除才会缓解。
8 \$ c# l9 A* ~: d
6 r2 f8 e' k( y+ ]以太坊今天的抛压也比昨天增加了不少,但显然资金的关注度依然还在,后面走势很可能是以时间换空间,继续强于大饼走势,在2000上方持续换手震荡,上海升级后的利好余波似乎还在。. X6 w& N6 L* H4 P1 y9 i5 T
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小币还是没啥持续性,资金整体在次新币上面折腾,除此之外就是之前被资金爆炒过的,出现了一定技术性反弹,这些持续性都不会太好,如果持续暴涨的小币加速后可以考虑逐步看空。
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& B2 c1 b; p8 q周末波动率会下降,30000上下震荡为主,预计不会出现太明显的单边行情。3 i) \. R3 `% v1 M8 m1 V
* b# }$ R; ~4 `0 k6 c2 ^ |
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写这个的人,看来是个专业炒家,只是不知道发财了没有 |
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美股隔夜下跌的原因主要是市场对加息概率的担忧。根据密歇根大学公布的数据,一年期通胀预测值高于预期,可能导致美联储不得不采取更紧缩的货币政策,包括可能在5月份和6月份分别加息25个基点。这可能对风险市场产生不利影响,导致大资金减持比特币等数字资产,尤其是一些鲸鱼账户,同时散户的筹码也出现松动现象,30000美元以上是筹码共识的止损止盈关口,这可能影响比特币价格持续上涨。以太坊可能相对强于比特币,但也可能面临一定的抛压和震荡。小币的走势可能不太持续,资金更关注次新币和之前被资金炒作过的币种。预计周末波动率会下降,市场可能在30000美元上下震荡为主,不会出现明显的单边行情。 |
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