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[lastpost] => 2797890 比特币和以太坊波动——交易量为何下降？（转） 1768580993 jackcool1011
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比特币减半、比特币ETF获批、美联储降息这三件事被越来越多人0 l7 n3 A" k* Z$ m y) h4 N
( y$ j: h7 R+ l; m' A, Z( }5 T% s+ u认为推动加密牛市的发动机。毫无疑问，比特币正在进入宏观金融世界，
4 M8 ^4 i3 r2 k' g8 g4 I a( p0 b0 I6 a# z+ D* u8 @
而传统金融大门向比特币彻底打开，迎接比特币的则是继承上一代财富
! }* X- X J8 F2 Y7 @) }! ^) ^5 F/ I/ t* ]
的千禧一代。2 {: X4 |+ B/ ~2 O. [
从比特币减半周期维度看，目前比特币确实已经进入新阶段。根据PlanB! y* x" l' i7 I
3 U: ^2 A+ L7 ?& O) ]* L
的S2F模型看，目前，比特币已经进入”减半前 6 个月 – 减半后 18 个月“. {( w4 {2 z" q0 l9 q+ w' A
. ^" Z! Q- [$ X0 }8 U/ i F$ c
时期，在这个阶段，买入并持有的收益很好。除了比特币减半临近，加5 ]* n$ r6 i8 i6 j1 {
& U) I8 ^; E3 k' b4 Q密资产监管合规之路出现重要转折点，比特币ETF推出似也呼之欲出。据. p3 o% a' F7 {1 g' M9 {
6 ^( x A% f) Z ?2 I《比推》报道，2023年8月，法庭文件显示，华盛顿一个由三名法官组成' U( b$ U$ A, H
3 \! j5 u4 G0 T+ o6 O的上诉小组推翻了美国证交会（SEC）阻止灰度 ETF 的决定。据《比推》
# U: M' d# O1 r! o+ \1 m- }' L0 j. }% S: a4 R6 W' J$ C
报道，在Ripple案中，10 月 3 日，法官Torres 驳回了 SEC的上诉请求；
* e) j, w1 A8 Y+ q
2 C: R6 y7 I) U g* R) o10月19日，灰度在X平台发文表示已提交了S-3表格，作为将GBTC转换为5 e' j* o9 c' }% i
( e _9 t2 G: ?, J2 z
ETF的努力的一部分。” 从近期美联储谈话看，美联储降息也基本确定。2 C2 Y0 I1 G" O- a) y3 V1 t. c
( K) f* d. a9 p/ J, ~) W9 \4 p: {据《比推》报道，美联储主席鲍威尔近日在新闻发布会上明确表达：降
& s/ y5 T; [3 M, F4 [& H& v2 {: O6 m9 }
息已经进入决策视野，决策者正在思考、讨论合适降息合适。$ V% r* F, c1 s: d$ D1 ~4 C+ m
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与巨大利好预期相对应的则是，千禧一代一边继承财富，一边拥抱加密
6 ^( A, ]! G' D* B) } V: v! k9 e) E
世界。据Galaxy研报显示：千禧一代即将迎来有史以来最大规模的财富
8 J& U0 Z- p" U' c$ x7 }( \; x2 ~9 e4 N8 s0 l6 ]( R
传承。尽管婴儿潮一代和更年长的一代只占美国成年人口的三分之一不: G+ N6 y X+ ^" \0 m2 U
$ j9 _. w+ ?& j9 h到，但却共同拥有美国家庭财富的三分之二（96 万亿美元），是千禧一: c/ `) p8 D- u h# Z
0 `, r6 R& ^2 }8 G: u7 b3 z
代及更年轻一代财富的 11 倍以上。受到多次经济衰退、高昂的住房成
+ K' O1 A% `, n+ g3 x4 N0 ^! y- h, z8 _
本和沉重的债务负担的影响，这些年轻一代更愿意接受替代性的金融体
! n% \+ s9 Z& b% n+ v. V3 |3 H2 a
" C, U- j8 W! v# n* V系和投资，包括加密货币。许多调查显示，这一代相较父辈，对加密货
+ s8 O0 S" U) y& F- }7 g$ X1 }1 ?; \! K% y& [& S
币的采用或接受率至少高出 3 倍。估算表明，财富转移的影响可能导致- \3 W/ {. }* r3 N
& S+ a9 V" n. d( F: m未来 20 年内加密市场每天增加 2000 万至 2800 万美元的购买力。财富
" i1 P6 b6 z {0 c; D
8 M; O+ C/ S5 w" R1 u% k/权力向年轻一代的人口结构转变是不可避免的，这对加密货币是个好兆头。
- a% a Z" z4 e7 C1 n1 b1 v' u7 Q, r0 `6 B: J2 K
7 j! C5 p, B+ ~) W" v |
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